$918.20
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
GRNY holding · entry card
APPENDIX · GEV · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 15.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 9 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 15.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 41.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 13.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 41.9 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 41.9 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (GEV close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -9.86% | -5.90% | Early Up ≥ 945.94 · Est. Down < 940.91 |
| Trend · XLI | 5 Established Down (−) → | -6.69% | -6.67% | Est. Up ≥ 1133.61 (+23.5%) · Early Up ≥ 917.27 · Est. Down < 912.40 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +4.93% | +5.49% | Est. Up ≥ 1079.87 (+17.6%) · Early Up ≥ 873.95 · Est. Down < 869.29 |
| Trading · XLI | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +1.38% | +2.70% | Est. Up ≥ 1206.69 (+31.4%) · Early Up ≥ 903.79 · Est. Down < 898.96 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 918.20)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 1181.95–1195.94 | +28.7% to +30.2% | wk high 04-24 1181.95 · ATH 07-06 1195.94 |
| R2 | 1095.00–1099.66 | +19.3% to +19.8% | wk high 05-29 1095.00 · wk high 08-21 1099.66 |
| R1 | 946.92–952.88 | +3.1% to +3.8% | 200-day SMA 946.92 · wk high 03-27 948.38 · 40-wk SMA 952.88 |
| S1 | 874.00–897.68 | -2.2% to -4.8% | wk low 07-31 897.68 · wk high 02-27 894.93 · 50% 885.37 · wk low 09-04 874.00 |
| S2 | 846.00–868.25 | -5.4% to -7.9% | wk low 09-18 868.25 · wk low 06-12 856.01 · wk high 02-13 846.00 |
| S3 | 796.41–812.08 | -11.6% to -13.3% | 61.8% 812.08 · wk low 04-03 807.00 · wk low 10-23 796.41 |
| ATH | 1195.94 | +30.2% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 874.00 (-4.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 846.00–868.25.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 846.00 (-7.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 796.41–812.08.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 945.94 · Est. Down < 940.91 (+2.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 1079.87 · Early Up ≥ 873.95 · Est. Down < 869.29.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09-08 chartbook: “GEV is oversold and rallying from key support near its red rising 200-day ma.”
- 2026-09-15 chartbook: “GEV is also challenging important support and a stop loss level at its summer lows near 863 with next support at 835.”
- 2026-09-22 chartbook: “GEV is oversold and beginning to bottom at support at its rising 200-day moving average.”
- 2026-10-13 chartbook: “GEV continues to bottom above support at its rising 40-week ma with its weekly momentum beginning to turn up from oversold levels which often supports further upside in the coming 2-4+ months. Key support/stop loss is at 863.”
Notes & caveats
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://grannyshots.com/fundstrat-granny-shots-us-large-cap-etf/grny-holdings/ (official; "Holdings as of November 3, 2026")); ETF weight 2.20%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history: the 200-wk SMA is not available, so that structure check scores 0. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
