$61.77
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
GRNY holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $67.01–68.85 | +8.5% to +11.5% | wk low 09-18, wk low 10-02, wk high 05-15 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $58.19 | -5.8% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $55.49 | -10.2% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $65.98 | +6.8% | top of R1 (40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA) |
APPENDIX · FCX · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 34.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 2.3 = 6.9 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 34.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 18.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 12.9 / 20 |
| Raw | 18.4 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 18.4 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (FCX close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) → | -8.48% | -9.23% | Est. Up ≥ 69.04 (+11.8%) · Est. Down < 58.43 |
| Trend · XLB | 4 Early Down (−) → | -11.94% | -13.27% | Est. Up ≥ 71.80 (+16.2%) · Est. Down < 62.22 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -5.80% | -4.74% | Early Up ≥ 65.56 · Est. Down < 65.21 |
| Trading · XLB | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.93% | -6.71% | Early Up ≥ 67.59 · Est. Down < 67.23 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 61.77)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 69.44–70.97 | +12.4% to +14.9% | wk high 01-30 69.44 · wk high 02-27 69.75 · wk high 04-24 70.97 |
| R2 | 67.01–68.85 | +8.5% to +11.5% | wk low 09-18 67.01 · wk low 10-02 68.20 · wk high 05-15 68.85 |
| R1 | 64.96–65.98 | +5.2% to +6.8% | 40-wk SMA 64.96 · 200-day SMA 65.24 · wk high 07-24 65.43 · 50% 65.51 · wk high 02-13 65.98 |
| S1 | 58.19–59.20 | -4.2% to -5.8% | wk low 02-20 59.20 · wk low 05-22 58.30 · wk low 02-06 58.23 · wk low 07-31 58.19 |
| S2 | 55.49–56.00 | -9.3% to -10.2% | wk low 07-10 56.00 · wk low 05-08 55.49 |
| S3 | 50.12–50.79 | -17.8% to -18.9% | wk low 03-20 50.79 · wk high 2024-10-25 50.12 |
| ATH | 80.24 | +29.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 58.19 (-5.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 55.49–56.00.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 55.49 (-10.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 50.12–50.79.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 69.04 (+11.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 69.04 · Est. Down < 58.43 (-5.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 65.56 · Est. Down < 65.21.
Sluymer context
- 2026-08-18 chartbook: “FCX is challenging resistance near 88-72 which we expect will resolve to the upside with 95 the next extension level. Source: RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Optuma”
- 2026-09-08 chartbook: “FCX’s long-term profile remains positive with a short-term pullback underway toward support between 65-71.”
- 2026-09-22 chartbook: “FCX is also bottoming at support. • H and EMA are also becoming oversold near next support bands with very early signs of bottoming.”
- 2026-09-22 chartbook: “FCX’s long-term profile remains bullish with the recent pullback oversold and bottoming at its 50-day ma.”
- 2026-10-06 chartbook: “FCX is bottoming at support in the upper 60s-low 70s near its 50-62% retracement band.”
- 2026-10-13 chartbook: “FCX also remains in a consolidation above support in the upper 60s-low 70s. First resistance is at 74 followed by 80 then 95-96 at the 262% extension level.”
Notes & caveats
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://grannyshots.com/fundstrat-granny-shots-us-large-cap-etf/grny-holdings/ (official; "Holdings as of November 3, 2026")); ETF weight 2.28%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
