COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
$1019.26
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
GRNY holding · entry card
APPENDIX · COST · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 91.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 91.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 74.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 12.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 74.1 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 74.1 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (COST close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +7.98% | +3.41% | Est. Up ≥ 938.73 (-7.9%) · Est. Down < 860.88 |
| Trend · XLP | 1 Established Up (+) → | +1.63% | +0.28% | Est. Up ≥ 999.33 (-2.0%) · Est. Down < 949.33 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.28% | +4.37% | Est. Up ≥ 991.23 (-2.8%) · Est. Down < 755.18 |
| Trading · XLP | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +0.79% | +1.44% | Est. Up ≥ 1013.73 (-0.5%) · Est. Down < 996.38 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 1019.26)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 1066.00–1096.50 | +4.6% to +7.6% | wk high ’25-03-07 1066.00 · wk high ’25-06-06 1067.08 · wk high ’25-02-14 1078.23 · ATH 05-19 1096.50 |
| R1 | 1020.82–1035.82 | +0.2% to +1.6% | wk high 03-06 1020.82 · wk high 10-23 1021.45 · wk high 02-20 1028.44 · wk high 05-01 1031.27 · wk high 04-10 1035.82 |
| S1 | 987.55–1018.00 | -0.1% to -3.1% | wk high ’25-05-02 1018.00 · wk high 2024-12-20 1008.25 · wk high ’25-06-27 1005.84 · wk low ’25-05-30 1002.00 · wk high ’25-04-18 999.92 · wk high ’25-08-22 999.30 · wk high 06-19 995.38 · wk high ’25-04-04 995.00 · wk high 07-31 987.55 |
| S2 | 960.46–985.15 | -3.3% to -5.8% | wk low 05-15 985.15 · wk low 05-01 985.12 · wk low ’25-05-16 983.00 · wk high ’25-09-12 981.00 · wk high 08-21 978.70 · … +5 more · wk low 04-17 966.00 · wk high ’25-10-17 964.00 · wk high 2024-11-08 962.00 · wk low 03-27 961.00 · wk low 03-06 960.46 |
| S3 | 925.00–945.28 | -7.3% to -9.2% | wk high ’25-11-07 945.28 · wk high ’25-01-10 944.28 · wk low ’25-04-25 942.97 · 61.8% 940.49 · wk low 06-05 936.51 · … +1 more · wk low 01-30 930.30 · wk low ’25-01-31 927.18 · wk high ’25-12-05 926.32 · wk low 08-21 925.77 · wk low ’25-08-01 925.00 |
| ATH | 1096.50 | +7.6% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 987.55 (-3.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 960.46–985.15.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 960.46 (-5.8%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 925.00–945.28.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 938.73 (-7.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 938.73 · Est. Down < 860.88 (-15.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 991.23 · Est. Down < 755.18.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://grannyshots.com/fundstrat-granny-shots-us-large-cap-etf/grny-holdings/ (official; "Holdings as of November 3, 2026")); ETF weight 2.75%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLP (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
