CF
CF Industries Holding, Inc.
$116.81
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
GRNY holding · entry card
APPENDIX · CF · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 78.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 2.3 = 22.3 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 78.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 53.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 8.6 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 13 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 53.9 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 53.9 Neutral |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CF close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +1.58% | +3.10% | Est. Up ≥ 121.57 (+4.1%) · Est. Down < 117.11 |
| Trend · XLB | 4 Early Down (−) → | -2.11% | -1.49% | Est. Up ≥ 126.24 (+8.1%) · Est. Down < 124.61 |
| Trading · S&P | 4 Early Down (+) ↓ | -0.86% | +0.90% | Est. Up ≥ 118.19 (+1.2%) · Est. Down < 104.34 |
| Trading · XLB | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -4.06% | -1.20% | Est. Up ≥ 137.67 (+17.9%) · Early Up ≥ 121.75 · Est. Down < 121.10 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 116.81)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 141.66–141.96 | +21.3% to +21.5% | wk high 09-11 141.66 · ATH 03-30 141.96 |
| R1 | 130.05–130.43 | +11.3% to +11.7% | wk high 07-24 130.05 · wk high 05-15 130.43 |
| S1 | 113.31–116.67 | -0.1% to -3.0% | 200-day SMA 116.67 · wk low 03-27 115.22 · wk low 05-08 113.31 |
| S2 | 108.69–111.27 | -4.7% to -7.0% | wk low 05-29 111.27 · wk low 10-09 110.61 · wk low 04-17 109.71 · wk low 08-07 109.43 · 50% 108.69 |
| S3 | 104.45–105.27 | -9.9% to -10.6% | wk high 02-20 105.27 · wk high ’25-06-20 104.45 |
| ATH | 141.96 | +21.5% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 113.31 (-3.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 108.69–111.27.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 108.69 (-7.0%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 104.45–105.27.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 121.57 (+4.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 121.57 · Est. Down < 117.11 (+0.3%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 118.19 · Est. Down < 104.34.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://grannyshots.com/fundstrat-granny-shots-us-large-cap-etf/grny-holdings/ (official; "Holdings as of November 3, 2026")); ETF weight 2.36%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
