$623.94
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
GRNY holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $771.39–789.81 | +23.6% to +26.6% | wk low 09-04, wk low 09-18, wk low 07-31 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $557.46 | -10.7% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $537.08 | -13.9% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $664.57 | +6.5% | top of R1 (wk low 03-13, wk low 04-03) |
APPENDIX · CAT · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 23.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 23.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 16.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 10.9 / 20 |
| Raw | 16.4 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 16.4 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CAT close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -21.79% | -13.89% | Early Up ≥ 791.83 · Est. Down < 787.61 |
| Trend · XLI | 5 Established Down (−) → | -19.00% | -14.60% | Early Up ≥ 767.40 · Est. Down < 763.32 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.93% | -1.69% | Early Up ≥ 683.40 · Est. Down < 679.75 |
| Trading · XLI | 5 Established Down (−) → | -12.07% | -4.29% | Early Up ≥ 707.30 · Est. Down < 703.52 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 623.94)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 805.27–813.76 | +29.1% to +30.4% | 50% 805.27 · 200-day SMA 809.63 · 40-wk SMA 813.76 |
| R2 | 771.39–789.81 | +23.6% to +26.6% | wk low 09-04 771.39 · wk low 09-18 772.86 · wk low 07-31 776.00 · wk high 02-27 777.60 · wk high 02-13 789.81 |
| R1 | 662.85–664.57 | +6.2% to +6.5% | wk low 03-13 662.85 · wk low 04-03 664.57 |
| S1 | 557.46–572.05 | -8.3% to -10.7% | wk low 01-02 572.05 · wk low ’25-12-19 557.46 |
| S2 | 537.08–544.99 | -12.7% to -13.9% | wk high ’25-10-17 544.99 · wk low ’25-11-21 537.08 |
| S3 | 437.84–441.15 | -29.3% to -29.8% | wk high ’25-08-01 441.15 · wk high ’25-08-22 437.84 |
| ATH | 1073.46 | +72.0% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 557.46 (-10.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 537.08–544.99.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 537.08 (-13.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 437.84–441.15.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 791.83 · Est. Down < 787.61 (+26.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 683.40 · Est. Down < 679.75.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09-08 chartbook: “CAT is in the early stages of establishing a second low near its rising 200-day moving average.”
- 2026-09-22 chartbook: “CAT, similar to semiconductors, is oversold and beginning to bottom at key support at its 200-day ma.”
- 2026-09-29 chartbook: “CAT continues to show early signs of bottoming at key support at its rising red 200-day ma.”
- 2026-10-06 chartbook: “CAT’s weekly momentum is also oversold and beginning to turn up as it bottoms at its rising red 200-day ma.”
Notes & caveats
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://grannyshots.com/fundstrat-granny-shots-us-large-cap-etf/grny-holdings/ (official; "Holdings as of November 3, 2026")); ETF weight 1.89%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
