$44.81
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $46.74–47.86 | +4.3% to +6.8% | 40-wk SMA, wk high ’25-01-10, wk low 08-14 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $42.76 | -4.6% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $41.63 | -7.1% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $46.50 | +3.8% | top of R1 (wk high 05-01, 50% retr.) |
APPENDIX · YPF · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 41.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 0.0 = 4.6 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 41.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 20.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 10.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 20.7 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 20.7 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (YPF close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) → | -7.31% | -8.84% | Est. Up ≥ 51.11 (+14.1%) · Early Up ≥ 50.86 · Est. Down < 50.59 |
| Trend · XLE | 5 Established Down (−) → | -17.18% | -12.08% | Early Up ≥ 56.67 · Est. Down < 56.37 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.58% | -4.40% | Early Up ≥ 48.42 · Est. Down < 48.17 |
| Trading · XLE | 5 Established Down (−) → | -6.89% | -3.42% | Early Up ≥ 48.01 · Est. Down < 47.76 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 44.81)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 48.36–49.41 | +7.9% to +10.3% | wk low 10-02 48.36 · wk high 04-03 48.96 · wk low 08-28 49.41 |
| R2 | 46.74–47.86 | +4.3% to +6.8% | 40-wk SMA 46.74 · wk high ’25-01-10 47.43 · wk low 08-14 47.86 |
| R1 | 45.31–46.50 | +1.1% to +3.8% | wk high 05-01 45.31 · 50% 45.64 · wk high 2024-12-20 45.97 · 200-day SMA 46.50 |
| S1 | 42.76–44.02 | -1.8% to -4.6% | wk low 07-03 44.02 · 61.8% 42.76 |
| S2 | 41.63–42.30 | -5.6% to -7.1% | wk high 2024-11-29 42.30 · wk low 05-08 41.63 |
| S3 | 39.35–40.38 | -9.9% to -12.2% | wk high 01-30 40.38 · wk high 02-13 39.96 · wk high ’25-11-14 39.80 · wk high ’25-02-21 39.45 · wk low 04-17 39.35 |
| ATH | 57.87 | +29.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 42.76 (-4.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 41.63–42.30.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 41.63 (-7.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 39.35–40.38.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 51.11 (+14.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 50.86 · Est. Down < 50.59 (+12.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 48.42 · Est. Down < 48.17.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 2.74% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLE (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
