XENE
Xenon Pharmaceuticals
$38.23
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $40.29–41.40 | +5.4% to +8.3% | wk low 02-06, wk low 2024-11-01, wk low 03-06 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $36.51 | -4.5% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $35.60 | -6.9% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $40.00 | +4.6% | top of R1 (wk high ’25-05-02, wk low 01-23) |
APPENDIX · XENE · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 13.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 13.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 70.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 13.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 70.7 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 70.7 Early Up |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (XENE close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -26.28% | +12.87% | Early Up ≥ 49.64 · Est. Down < 49.38 |
| Trend · XLV | 5 Established Down (+) → | -33.27% | +6.77% | |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +7.70% | +3.88% | Est. Up ≥ 35.76 (-6.5%) · Est. Down < 26.76 |
| Trading · XLV | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +3.89% | +1.85% | Est. Up ≥ 36.97 (-3.3%) · Est. Down < 35.78 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 38.23)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 42.23–43.49 | +10.5% to +13.8% | wk high ’25-01-03 42.23 · wk low ’25-12-19 42.44 · wk high 2024-12-13 43.38 · wk high 2024-11-29 43.49 |
| R2 | 40.29–41.40 | +5.4% to +8.3% | wk low 02-06 40.29 · wk low 2024-11-01 40.66 · wk low 03-06 41.05 · wk high ’25-01-31 41.40 |
| R1 | 39.01–40.00 | +2.0% to +4.6% | wk high ’25-05-02 39.01 · wk low 01-23 39.29 · wk high ’25-08-22 39.58 · wk high ’25-09-05 39.84 · wk high ’25-02-28 40.00 |
| S1 | 36.51–37.62 | -1.6% to -4.5% | wk low ’25-02-14 37.62 · wk low 2024-12-20 37.52 · wk low 2024-11-22 37.34 · wk low ’25-11-07 37.23 · wk low ’25-01-17 36.90 · wk high ’25-03-28 36.51 |
| S2 | 35.60–36.07 | -5.7% to -6.9% | wk low 09-25 36.07 · wk low ’25-09-19 35.60 |
| S3 | 33.27–33.83 | -11.5% to -13.0% | wk high ’25-07-04 33.83 · wk low ’25-03-14 33.81 · wk high ’25-06-13 33.46 · wk low 10-16 33.38 · wk low ’25-02-28 33.27 |
| ATH | 72.66 | +90.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 36.51 (-4.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 35.60–36.07.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 35.60 (-6.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 33.27–33.83.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 49.64 · Est. Down < 49.38 (+29.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 35.76 · Est. Down < 26.76.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.28% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
