$291.78
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · WAB · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 56.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 9.0 = 13.6 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 56.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Neutral |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Neutral |
| Trend (confirmed) | Neutral |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 74.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 22 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — oversold & turning up (with structure) | 18.8 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 74.0 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 74.0 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (WAB close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) → | -1.43% | -1.50% | Est. Up ≥ 285.59 (-2.1%) · Est. Down < 248.16 |
| Trend · XLI | 1 Established Up (−) → | +1.91% | -2.31% | Est. Up ≥ 277.10 (-5.0%) · Est. Down < 205.30 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +4.38% | +4.22% | Est. Up ≥ 280.19 (-4.0%) · Est. Down < 256.18 |
| Trading · XLI | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +0.86% | +1.47% | Est. Up ≥ 292.99 (+0.4%) · Early Up ≥ 289.74 · Est. Down < 288.19 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 291.78)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 304.36–306.64 | +4.3% to +5.1% | wk high 08-21 304.36 · ATH 07-29 306.64 |
| R1 | 292.00–294.72 | +0.1% to +1.0% | wk high 10-23 292.00 · wk high 09-25 293.95 · wk high 10-09 294.72 |
| S1 | 284.91–289.69 | -0.7% to -2.4% | wk low 08-21 289.69 · wk high 06-26 284.91 |
| S2 | 268.02–275.84 | -5.5% to -8.1% | wk high 04-10 275.84 · wk low 10-09 275.13 · wk low 09-04 274.83 · wk high 05-08 274.49 · wk low 09-18 273.01 · wk low 10-23 271.14 · 40-wk SMA 268.95 · 200-day SMA 268.57 · wk high 06-05 268.02 |
| S3 | 259.88–266.27 | -8.7% to -10.9% | wk high 02-27 266.27 · 50% 259.88 |
| ATH | 306.64 | +5.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 284.91 (-2.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 268.02–275.84.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 268.02 (-8.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 259.88–266.27.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 285.59 (-2.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 285.59 · Est. Down < 248.16 (-14.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 280.19 · Est. Down < 256.18.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.29% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
