$67.92
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · VIST · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 71.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 18.0 + 0.0 = 18.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 71.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 52.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 4.6 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 16 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 52.7 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 52.7 Neutral |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (VIST close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +2.01% | -1.06% | Est. Up ≥ 69.52 (+2.4%) · Est. Down < 59.48 |
| Trend · XLE | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.71% | -4.57% | Est. Up ≥ 89.66 (+32.0%) · Early Up ≥ 77.35 · Est. Down < 76.94 |
| Trading · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -2.90% | -3.21% | Est. Up ≥ 70.24 (+3.4%) · Est. Down < 67.76 |
| Trading · XLE | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -2.13% | -2.22% | Est. Up ≥ 73.33 (+8.0%) · Early Up ≥ 69.62 · Est. Down < 69.25 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 67.92)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 75.96–78.00 | +11.8% to +14.8% | wk high 05-01 75.96 · wk high 06-05 78.00 |
| R2 | 73.52–75.01 | +8.2% to +10.4% | wk high 08-21 73.52 · wk high 10-23 75.01 |
| R1 | 71.14–71.38 | +4.7% to +5.1% | wk high 07-31 71.14 · wk low 05-29 71.38 |
| S1 | 67.28–67.84 | -0.1% to -0.9% | 40-wk SMA 67.84 · wk low 08-28 67.28 |
| S2 | 62.42–63.77 | -6.1% to -8.1% | wk low 05-08 63.77 · wk low 10-02 63.19 · wk high 02-06 62.42 |
| S3 | 59.82–61.67 | -9.2% to -11.9% | wk high ’25-01-24 61.67 · wk low 07-24 61.50 · wk low 07-03 59.82 |
| ATH | 81.44 | +19.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 67.28 (-0.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 62.42–63.77.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 62.42 (-8.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 59.82–61.67.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 69.52 (+2.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 69.52 · Est. Down < 59.48 (-12.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 70.24 · Est. Down < 67.76.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.16% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLE (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
