$40.48
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · U · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 38.2
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 2.3 = 6.9 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 16 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 38.2 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up; Down pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 49.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 9 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 14.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 49.4 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 49.4 Neutral |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (U close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -5.67% | -5.71% | Est. Up ≥ 40.78 (+0.7%) · Est. Down < 28.34 |
| Trend · XLK | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -2.99% | -4.62% | Est. Up ≥ 39.59 (-2.2%) · Est. Down < 28.34 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +1.88% | +5.14% | Est. Up ≥ 51.58 (+27.4%) · Early Up ≥ 39.78 · Est. Down < 39.57 |
| Trading · XLK | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +5.23% | +10.22% | Est. Up ≥ 42.41 (+4.8%) · Early Up ≥ 38.58 · Est. Down < 38.38 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 40.48)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 48.46–48.81 | +19.7% to +20.6% | wk high 08-21 48.46 · wk high 01-16 48.81 |
| R2 | 46.94–47.77 | +16.0% to +18.0% | wk high ’25-09-19 46.94 · wk high 10-16 47.77 |
| R1 | 43.63–44.62 | +7.8% to +10.2% | wk low ’25-12-19 43.63 · wk high ’25-11-14 43.91 · wk high 01-30 44.33 · wk high 09-18 44.62 |
| S1 | 38.44–38.96 | -3.8% to -5.0% | wk high ’25-07-18 38.96 · wk low 10-02 38.44 |
| S2 | 34.04–34.79 | -14.1% to -15.9% | wk low ’25-11-14 34.79 · wk low ’25-10-17 34.04 |
| S3 | 32.58–33.05 | -18.4% to -19.5% | wk high 07-10 33.05 · wk high 06-05 32.58 |
| ATH | 210.00 | +418.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 38.44 (-5.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 34.04–34.79.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 34.04 (-15.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 32.58–33.05.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 40.78 (+0.7%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 40.78 · Est. Down < 28.34 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 51.58 · Early Up ≥ 39.78 · Est. Down < 39.57.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09 longview: “U.S. mid-term elections. Oversold”
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.41% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
