TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor ADR
$404.80
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · TSM · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 43.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 1.0 = 1.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 43.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up; Down pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 47.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 13 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — oversold & turning up (with structure) | 18.8 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 47.1 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 47.1 Neutral |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (TSM close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.48% | -0.54% | Est. Up ≥ 433.16 (+7.0%) · Early Up ≥ 422.98 · Est. Down < 420.73 |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (+) ↓ | -0.85% | +0.60% | Est. Up ≥ 420.60 (+3.9%) · Early Up ≥ 410.87 · Est. Down < 408.68 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -2.49% | -4.38% | Est. Up ≥ 479.18 (+18.4%) · Early Up ≥ 415.78 · Est. Down < 413.56 |
| Trading · XLK | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +0.75% | +0.24% | Est. Up ≥ 403.08 (-0.4%) · Est. Down < 389.62 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 404.80)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 436.04–444.29 | +7.7% to +9.8% | wk high 08-14 436.04 · wk high 09-11 444.29 |
| R2 | 419.19–421.97 | +3.6% to +4.2% | wk low 06-26 419.19 · wk high 05-15 421.97 |
| R1 | 405.15–412.55 | +0.1% to +1.9% | wk low 08-28 405.15 · wk low 06-12 405.51 · wk low 10-16 407.13 · wk low 09-18 412.55 |
| S1 | 390.21–401.12 | -0.9% to -3.6% | 40-wk SMA 401.12 · 200-day SMA 400.76 · 50% 400.63 · wk high 02-27 390.21 |
| S2 | 380.00–386.02 | -4.6% to -6.1% | wk low 07-17 386.02 · wk low 05-22 385.06 · 61.8% 380.14 · wk high 02-13 380.00 |
| S3 | 350.45–351.33 | -13.2% to -13.4% | wk high 01-16 351.33 · wk high 03-27 350.45 |
| ATH | 487.47 | +20.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 390.21 (-3.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 380.00–386.02.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 380.00 (-6.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 350.45–351.33.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 433.16 (+7.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 422.98 · Est. Down < 420.73 (+3.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 479.18 · Early Up ≥ 415.78 · Est. Down < 413.56.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 5.40% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
