$48.54
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · STM · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 28.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 28.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 51.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 11.4 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 51.4 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 51.4 Neutral |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (STM close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -8.79% | +4.05% | Early Up ≥ 50.60 · Est. Down < 50.33 |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (+) → | -6.39% | +5.25% | Early Up ≥ 49.16 · Est. Down < 48.90 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (−) → | +5.37% | -0.96% | Est. Up ≥ 47.12 (-2.9%) · Early Up ≥ 46.20 · Est. Down < 45.95 |
| Trading · XLK | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +8.83% | +3.83% | Est. Up ≥ 44.81 (-7.7%) · Est. Down < 37.10 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 48.54)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 81.17–81.42 | +67.2% to +67.7% | wk high 06-26 81.17 · ATH 06-03 81.42 |
| R1 | 50.31–51.26 | +3.6% to +5.6% | 200-day SMA 50.31 · 40-wk SMA 50.81 · 50% 51.26 |
| S1 | 47.53–48.48 | -0.1% to -2.1% | wk low 09-04 48.48 · wk low 07-31 47.88 · wk low 09-18 47.53 |
| S2 | 43.21–44.15 | -9.0% to -11.0% | 61.8% 44.15 · wk low 10-23 43.21 |
| S3 | 34.60–35.07 | -27.8% to -28.7% | wk high 02-13 35.07 · wk high 02-27 34.91 · wk high 03-13 34.60 |
| ATH | 81.42 | +67.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 47.53 (-2.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 43.21–44.15.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 43.21 (-11.0%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 34.60–35.07.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 50.60 · Est. Down < 50.33 (+3.7%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 47.12 · Early Up ≥ 46.20 · Est. Down < 45.95.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 4.46% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
