$86.37
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $90.32–91.70 | +4.6% to +6.2% | wk high 10-02, wk high 06-26, 50% retr. |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $83.55 | -3.3% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $80.38 | -6.9% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $89.45 | +3.6% | top of R1 (wk high 07-17, wk high ’25-11-28) |
APPENDIX · SKY · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 53.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 12.0 + 4.3 = 16.3 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 16 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 53.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Neutral |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down; Neutral pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 80.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 14 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 11.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 80.4 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 80.4 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (SKY close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 3 Neutral (+) ↑ | +0.20% | +10.09% | Est. Up ≥ 84.79 (-1.8%) · Est. Down < 80.64 |
| Trend · XLY | 4 Early Down (+) ↑ | -1.77% | +6.20% | Est. Up ≥ 86.70 (+0.4%) · Est. Down < 77.90 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +9.55% | +8.70% | Est. Up ≥ 79.37 (-8.1%) · Est. Down < 60.46 |
| Trading · XLY | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +5.84% | +5.54% | Est. Up ≥ 81.95 (-5.1%) · Est. Down < 69.36 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 86.37)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 95.26–96.71 | +10.3% to +12.0% | wk high ’25-01-17 95.26 · wk high ’25-05-16 95.38 · wk high 08-14 96.59 · wk high 2024-10-04 96.71 |
| R2 | 90.32–91.70 | +4.6% to +6.2% | wk high 10-02 90.32 · wk high 06-26 90.54 · 50% 90.65 · wk low ’25-03-14 90.83 · wk low 2024-10-11 91.70 |
| R1 | 86.94–89.45 | +0.7% to +3.6% | wk high 07-17 86.94 · wk high ’25-11-28 87.51 · wk low ’25-01-31 88.01 · wk low 08-21 89.31 · wk high ’25-12-12 89.45 |
| S1 | 83.55–85.71 | -0.8% to -3.3% | wk low 2024-11-01 85.71 · wk high ’25-11-14 85.32 · 61.8% 84.56 · wk high 04-24 84.49 · wk low ’25-01-10 83.97 · wk low 01-02 83.55 |
| S2 | 80.38–82.26 | -4.8% to -6.9% | 200-day SMA 82.26 · 40-wk SMA 82.22 · wk low ’25-12-12 81.91 · wk high ’25-09-05 80.98 · wk high ’25-09-19 80.55 · wk low 09-11 80.38 |
| S3 | 76.83–79.12 | -8.4% to -11.0% | wk high ’25-10-03 79.12 · wk low ’25-04-25 78.43 · wk high ’25-10-24 78.32 · wk low 07-10 78.22 · wk low ’25-04-11 78.08 · wk low 07-31 77.88 · wk high ’25-08-22 76.83 |
| ATH | 116.49 | +34.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 83.55 (-3.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 80.38–82.26.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 80.38 (-6.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 76.83–79.12.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 84.79 (-1.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 84.79 · Est. Down < 80.64 (-6.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 79.37 · Est. Down < 60.46.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.43% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLY (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
