$26.81
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $30.20–30.63 | +12.6% to +14.2% | wk low 09-04, wk low 02-20, 40-wk SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $26.05 | -2.8% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $24.58 | -8.3% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $29.49 | +10.0% | top of R1 (wk high 07-24, wk low 05-01) |
APPENDIX · SKE · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 23.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 23.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 22.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 16.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 22.0 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 22.0 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (SKE close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -11.54% | -14.00% | Est. Up ≥ 30.71 (+14.5%) · Est. Down < 26.05 |
| Trend · XLB | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -14.86% | -17.83% | Est. Up ≥ 31.93 (+19.1%) · Est. Down < 27.71 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.39% | -3.40% | Early Up ≥ 29.00 · Est. Down < 28.85 |
| Trading · XLB | 5 Established Down (−) → | -10.50% | -5.41% | Early Up ≥ 29.91 · Est. Down < 29.75 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 26.81)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 31.64–32.43 | +18.0% to +21.0% | wk high 06-05 31.64 · wk high 06-19 32.43 |
| R2 | 30.20–30.63 | +12.6% to +14.2% | wk low 09-04 30.20 · wk low 02-20 30.44 · 40-wk SMA 30.54 · 200-day SMA 30.56 · wk low 08-21 30.63 |
| R1 | 28.68–29.49 | +7.0% to +10.0% | wk high 07-24 28.68 · wk low 05-01 28.77 · wk low 09-18 29.09 · wk low 10-09 29.37 · wk high 07-10 29.49 |
| S1 | 26.05–26.29 | -1.9% to -2.8% | 50% 26.29 · wk high ’25-12-12 26.05 |
| S2 | 24.58–25.15 | -6.2% to -8.3% | wk low 03-20 25.15 · wk low 06-26 24.79 · wk low 07-17 24.59 · wk low 06-12 24.58 |
| S3 | 16.85–17.25 | -35.7% to -37.2% | wk high ’25-07-25 17.25 · wk low ’25-09-19 17.02 · wk low ’25-10-03 16.85 |
| ATH | 38.77 | +44.6% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 26.05 (-2.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 24.58–25.15.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 24.58 (-8.3%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 16.85–17.25.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 30.71 (+14.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 30.71 · Est. Down < 26.05 (-2.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 29.00 · Est. Down < 28.85.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.15% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
