$173.49
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $181.58–184.69 | +4.7% to +6.5% | wk low 09-18, 50% retr., 40-wk SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $157.71 | -9.1% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $143.75 | -17.1% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $178.22 | +2.7% | top of R1 (61.8% retr., wk low 02-20) |
APPENDIX · SCCO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 34.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 2.3 = 6.9 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 34.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 10.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 10.2 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 10.2 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (SCCO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) → | -7.58% | -10.53% | Est. Up ≥ 191.84 (+10.6%) · Est. Down < 167.78 |
| Trend · XLB | 4 Early Down (−) → | -11.08% | -14.52% | Est. Up ≥ 199.53 (+15.0%) · Est. Down < 178.53 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.12% | -6.73% | Early Up ≥ 186.73 · Est. Down < 185.73 |
| Trading · XLB | 5 Established Down (−) → | -10.22% | -8.67% | Early Up ≥ 192.54 · Est. Down < 191.51 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 173.49)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 190.59–192.58 | +9.9% to +11.0% | wk high 05-15 190.59 · wk high 07-24 192.06 · wk high 04-17 192.58 |
| R2 | 181.58–184.69 | +4.7% to +6.5% | wk low 09-18 181.58 · 50% 182.50 · 40-wk SMA 183.67 · 200-day SMA 184.69 |
| R1 | 174.02–178.22 | +0.3% to +2.7% | 61.8% 174.02 · wk low 02-20 175.81 · wk low 02-06 178.22 |
| S1 | 157.71–161.82 | -6.7% to -9.1% | wk low 06-12 161.82 · wk low 05-22 161.56 · wk low 05-08 160.60 · wk low 07-10 157.71 |
| S2 | 143.75–146.54 | -15.5% to -17.1% | wk low 03-20 146.54 · wk high ’25-12-26 146.09 · wk high ’25-12-12 143.75 |
| S3 | 134.45–137.84 | -20.5% to -22.5% | wk high ’25-10-31 137.84 · wk low 01-02 136.31 · wk high ’25-11-14 134.45 |
| ATH | 218.46 | +25.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 157.71 (-9.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 143.75–146.54.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 143.75 (-17.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 134.45–137.84.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 191.84 (+10.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 191.84 · Est. Down < 167.78 (-3.3%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 186.73 · Est. Down < 185.73.
Sluymer context
- 2026-10-13 chartbook: “SCCO consolidation above support near its red 40-week moving average which we expect will resolve to the upside with 275 the next extension level above resistance at 224.”
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.41% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
