$194.23
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · RVMD · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 38.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 38.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 82.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 17 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — oversold & turning up (with structure) | 18.8 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 82.2 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 82.2 Established Up |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (RVMD close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -1.91% | +8.63% | Est. Up ≥ 195.95 (+0.9%) · Est. Down < 184.91 |
| Trend · XLV | 5 Established Down (+) → | -10.86% | +2.76% | Est. Up ≥ 237.14 (+22.1%) · Early Up ≥ 215.25 · Est. Down < 214.11 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +4.34% | +4.12% | Est. Up ≥ 186.40 (-4.0%) · Est. Down < 177.44 |
| Trading · XLV | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +0.58% | +2.09% | Est. Up ≥ 234.81 (+20.9%) · Early Up ≥ 192.79 · Est. Down < 191.76 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 194.23)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 211.51–213.00 | +8.9% to +9.7% | wk high 09-25 211.51 · wk high 09-11 213.00 |
| R1 | 198.91–203.49 | +2.4% to +4.8% | wk low 08-28 198.91 · wk high 10-23 203.49 |
| S1 | 188.18–193.82 | -0.2% to -3.1% | wk high 07-10 193.82 · wk low 09-18 188.18 |
| S2 | 175.91–178.07 | -8.3% to -9.4% | wk low 07-31 178.07 · wk low 07-17 176.00 · wk low 10-16 175.91 |
| S3 | 155.70–157.91 | -18.7% to -19.8% | 50% 157.91 · 200-day SMA 156.73 · 40-wk SMA 156.69 · wk high 04-17 155.70 |
| ATH | 224.31 | +15.5% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 188.18 (-3.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 175.91–178.07.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 175.91 (-9.4%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 155.70–157.91.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 195.95 (+0.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 195.95 · Est. Down < 184.91 (-4.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 186.40 · Est. Down < 177.44.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 1.44% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
