$17.44
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · RLAY · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 38.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 38.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 34.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 4.6 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 13 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 34.3 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 34.3 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (RLAY close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -0.84% | +13.90% | Est. Up ≥ 21.91 (+25.6%) · Early Up ≥ 18.44 · Est. Down < 18.35 |
| Trend · XLV | 5 Established Down (+) → | -9.91% | +7.74% | Early Up ≥ 20.26 · Est. Down < 20.15 |
| Trading · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -1.86% | -8.63% | Est. Up ≥ 17.90 (+2.6%) · Est. Down < 16.22 |
| Trading · XLV | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -5.38% | -10.42% | Est. Up ≥ 21.45 (+23.0%) · Early Up ≥ 18.51 · Est. Down < 18.41 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 17.44)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 20.39–20.79 | +16.9% to +19.2% | wk high 07-24 20.39 · wk high 07-10 20.79 |
| R2 | 19.50–19.69 | +11.8% to +12.9% | wk high 10-09 19.50 · wk high 09-18 19.69 |
| R1 | 17.47–17.96 | +0.2% to +3.0% | wk high 06-05 17.47 · wk low 07-31 17.71 · wk low 09-04 17.96 |
| S1 | 15.10–15.45 | -11.4% to -13.4% | wk high 05-22 15.45 · 40-wk SMA 15.23 · 200-day SMA 15.10 |
| S2 | 11.43–11.75 | -32.6% to -34.5% | wk low 05-08 11.75 · wk low 05-22 11.62 · wk high 03-13 11.49 · wk high 02-27 11.43 |
| S3 | 9.27–9.54 | -45.3% to -46.8% | wk high 02-13 9.54 · wk low 03-27 9.27 |
| ATH | 64.37 | +269.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 15.10 (-13.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 11.43–11.75.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 11.43 (-34.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 9.27–9.54.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 21.91 (+25.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 18.44 · Est. Down < 18.35 (+5.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 17.90 · Est. Down < 16.22.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.13% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
