$13.81
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $14.80–15.18 | +7.2% to +9.9% | wk high 05-29, wk high 2024-11-29, wk high ’25-07-04 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $13.42 | -2.8% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $12.95 | -6.2% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $14.58 | +5.6% | top of R1 (40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA) |
APPENDIX · RKT · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 21.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 12.0 + 1.0 = 13.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 0 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 21.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 87.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 14 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 87.4 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 87.4 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (RKT close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 3 Neutral (+) ↑ | -0.07% | +19.98% | Est. Up ≥ 16.38 (+18.6%) · Early Up ≥ 12.72 · Est. Down < 12.65 |
| Trend · XLF | 5 Established Down (+) → | -1.01% | +16.66% | Est. Up ≥ 16.41 (+18.8%) · Early Up ≥ 12.86 · Est. Down < 12.79 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +19.19% | +18.17% | Est. Up ≥ 11.71 (-15.2%) · Est. Down < 9.67 |
| Trading · XLF | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +15.39% | +15.35% | Est. Up ≥ 12.07 (-12.6%) · Est. Down < 9.67 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 13.81)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 15.34–15.80 | +11.1% to +14.4% | wk low ’25-11-07 15.34 · wk low ’25-10-10 15.80 |
| R2 | 14.80–15.18 | +7.2% to +9.9% | wk high 05-29 14.80 · wk high 2024-11-29 15.15 · wk high ’25-07-04 15.18 |
| R1 | 14.36–14.58 | +4.0% to +5.6% | 40-wk SMA 14.36 · 200-day SMA 14.58 |
| S1 | 13.42–13.75 | -0.4% to -2.8% | wk low 07-10 13.75 · wk low 04-03 13.43 · wk high ’25-04-25 13.42 |
| S2 | 12.95–13.18 | -4.6% to -6.2% | wk low ’25-07-18 13.18 · wk low 2024-11-22 13.07 · wk low 09-04 12.95 |
| S3 | 12.38–12.73 | -7.8% to -10.4% | wk low ’25-03-14 12.73 · wk low 07-24 12.57 · wk high ’25-01-17 12.50 · wk low 05-22 12.38 |
| ATH | 43.00 | +211.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 13.42 (-2.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 12.95–13.18.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 12.95 (-6.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 12.38–12.73.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 16.38 (+18.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 12.72 · Est. Down < 12.65 (-8.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 11.71 · Est. Down < 9.67.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.20% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
