$118.89
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $127.16–130.07 | +7.0% to +9.4% | wk high 09-11, wk low 07-17, 200-day SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $111.75 | -6.0% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $105.00 | -11.7% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $125.04 | +5.2% | top of R1 (wk high 03-27, wk low 07-31) |
APPENDIX · Q · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 21.8
| Short history (53 wks): RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 |
| Structure (computable checks) | 9 / 25 |
| Score = points earned × 100 / 55 computable points | 21.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays, on the history that exists) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · – Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA n/a (short history) · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. |
Scores · Trading 42.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 11.4 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 10.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 42.3 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 42.3 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (Q close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -6.88% | +2.19% | Early Up ≥ 124.75 · Est. Down < 124.08 |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (+) → | -4.46% | +3.36% | Early Up ≥ 121.29 · Est. Down < 120.65 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (−) ↑ | +2.64% | -1.13% | Est. Up ≥ 123.20 (+3.6%) · Early Up ≥ 115.91 · Est. Down < 115.29 |
| Trading · XLK | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +6.03% | +3.64% | Est. Up ≥ 112.39 (-5.5%) · Est. Down < 98.23 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 118.89)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 133.87–135.20 | +12.6% to +13.7% | wk high 10-09 133.87 · wk low 06-12 135.20 |
| R2 | 127.16–130.07 | +7.0% to +9.4% | wk high 09-11 127.16 · wk low 07-17 129.09 · 200-day SMA 129.54 · 40-wk SMA 130.07 |
| R1 | 122.64–125.04 | +3.2% to +5.2% | wk high 03-27 122.64 · wk low 07-31 122.67 · 50% 125.04 |
| S1 | 111.75–113.33 | -4.7% to -6.0% | wk low 09-04 113.33 · 61.8% 112.72 · wk low 09-18 111.75 |
| S2 | 105.00–107.84 | -9.3% to -11.7% | wk high 01-23 107.84 · wk low 04-03 106.17 · wk low 03-13 105.41 · wk high ’25-11-07 105.40 · wk low 10-23 105.00 |
| ATH | 177.28 | +49.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 111.75 (-6.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 105.00–107.84.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 105.00 (-11.7%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to the next lower level (none computed).
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 124.75 · Est. Down < 124.08 (+4.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 123.20 · Early Up ≥ 115.91 · Est. Down < 115.29.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.39% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history (53 wks): under the 104 weekly bars of a full card. Checks that need more history (Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA) are left out of both the points earned and the points possible, and the score is rescaled to 0–100 (55 points computable). Trend shows N/A under 10 weekly bars or when fewer than 30 points can be computed. The 2-Friday confirmation uses the history that exists. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
