$350.20
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · PANW · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 100.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 30 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 100.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 26.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 4.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 11.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 26.0 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 26.0 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (PANW close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +1.87% | +8.10% | Est. Up ≥ 359.75 (+2.7%) · Est. Down < 324.81 |
| Trend · XLK | 1 Established Up (+) → | +4.66% | +9.34% | Est. Up ≥ 349.39 (-0.2%) · Est. Down < 315.73 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -3.01% | -6.14% | Est. Up ≥ 441.05 (+25.9%) · Early Up ≥ 361.57 · Est. Down < 359.63 |
| Trading · XLK | 3 Neutral (−) ↓ | +0.22% | -1.60% | Est. Up ≥ 361.13 (+3.1%) · Early Up ≥ 350.50 · Est. Down < 348.63 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 350.20)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 387.33–398.88 | +10.6% to +13.9% | wk high 08-28 387.33 · wk high 08-14 398.88 |
| S1 | 302.95–308.54 | -11.9% to -13.5% | wk low 07-31 308.54 · wk high 06-05 302.95 |
| S2 | 271.45–272.61 | -22.2% to -22.5% | 40-wk SMA 272.61 · 200-day SMA 271.45 |
| S3 | 251.15–253.83 | -27.5% to -28.3% | 61.8% 253.83 · wk low 06-12 251.15 |
| ATH | 432.33 | +23.5% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 302.95 (-13.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 271.45–272.61.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 271.45 (-22.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 251.15–253.83.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 359.75 (+2.7%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 359.75 · Est. Down < 324.81 (-7.3%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 441.05 · Early Up ≥ 361.57 · Est. Down < 359.63.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09-08 chartbook: “PANW is consolidating near resistance coinciding with its 262% extension around 360 with 300 first support.”
- 2026-09-22 chartbook: “PANW consolidating to support at its rising 20-week ma while CRWD is rebounds taking hold from key support near 40-week resolving its summer consolidation to the upside. mas.”
- 2026-09-22 chartbook: “PANW Q3 consolidation continues above key support and stop loss level at its 100-day ma near 300 with the next extension level above the recent highs near 400 at 495.”
- 2026-09-29 chartbook: “PANW’s Q3 consolidation is resolving to the upside with 443 the next extension level.”
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.76% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
