OLMA
Olema Pharmaceuticals
$7.35
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · OLMA · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 5.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 0 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 5.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 35.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 35.0 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 35.0 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (OLMA close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -26.56% | +7.50% | Early Up ≥ 9.42 · Est. Down < 9.37 |
| Trend · XLV | 5 Established Down (+) → | -33.52% | +1.69% | |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +6.48% | +2.28% | Est. Up ≥ 6.94 (-5.6%) · Est. Down < 6.17 |
| Trading · XLV | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +2.66% | +0.28% | Est. Up ≥ 8.29 (+12.8%) · Early Up ≥ 7.18 · Est. Down < 7.14 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 7.35)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 10.71–10.98 | +45.7% to +49.4% | wk low 07-24 10.71 · wk high 2024-12-06 10.93 · wk low 2024-10-11 10.98 |
| R2 | 9.54–9.70 | +29.8% to +32.0% | wk high ’25-10-31 9.54 · wk low 08-14 9.70 |
| R1 | 7.68–7.76 | +4.5% to +5.6% | wk low 2024-11-22 7.68 · wk low ’25-11-07 7.76 |
| S1 | 6.65–6.70 | -8.8% to -9.5% | wk high ’25-02-07 6.70 · wk low ’25-10-24 6.65 |
| S2 | 5.61–5.74 | -21.9% to -23.7% | wk high ’25-05-02 5.74 · wk high ’25-08-08 5.66 · wk high ’25-05-30 5.61 |
| S3 | 4.75–4.80 | -34.7% to -35.4% | wk high ’25-06-27 4.80 · wk low ’25-02-14 4.77 · wk high ’25-03-21 4.75 |
| ATH | 60.27 | +720.0% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 6.65 (-9.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 5.61–5.74.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 5.61 (-23.7%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 4.75–4.80.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 9.42 · Est. Down < 9.37 (+27.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 6.94 · Est. Down < 6.17.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.24% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
