NVTS
Navitas Semiconductor
$8.56
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $10.24–10.49 | +19.6% to +22.5% | wk high ’25-12-12, wk low 09-18, wk high 02-27 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $7.53 | -12.0% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $7.18 | -16.1% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $9.43 | +10.2% | top of R1 (wk high ’25-06-13, wk high 02-13) |
APPENDIX · NVTS · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 13.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 13.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 26.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 5.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 10.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 26.9 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 26.9 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (NVTS close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -24.46% | +2.74% | Early Up ≥ 11.23 · Est. Down < 11.17 |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (+) → | -22.40% | +3.92% | Early Up ≥ 10.91 · Est. Down < 10.85 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.04% | -5.09% | Early Up ≥ 8.64 · Est. Down < 8.59 |
| Trading · XLK | 2 Early Up (−) ↑ | +2.28% | -0.51% | Est. Up ≥ 10.46 (+22.2%) · Early Up ≥ 8.37 · Est. Down < 8.33 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 8.56)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 10.74–10.80 | +25.5% to +26.2% | wk low 07-17 10.74 · wk low 09-04 10.80 |
| R2 | 10.24–10.49 | +19.6% to +22.5% | wk high ’25-12-12 10.24 · wk low 09-18 10.27 · wk high 02-27 10.49 |
| R1 | 9.17–9.43 | +7.1% to +10.2% | wk high ’25-06-13 9.17 · wk high 02-13 9.28 · wk low 07-31 9.43 |
| S1 | 7.53–7.71 | -9.9% to -12.0% | wk low 02-20 7.71 · wk low 04-03 7.66 · wk high ’25-05-30 7.53 |
| S2 | 7.18–7.35 | -14.1% to -16.1% | wk low 02-06 7.35 · wk low ’25-11-07 7.18 |
| S3 | 4.55–4.66 | -45.6% to -46.8% | wk high 2024-12-13 4.66 · wk high ’25-01-10 4.55 |
| ATH | 34.17 | +299.2% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 7.53 (-12.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 7.18–7.35.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 7.18 (-16.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 4.55–4.66.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 11.23 · Est. Down < 11.17 (+30.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 8.64 · Est. Down < 8.59.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.11% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
