$388.63
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · NTRA · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 100.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 30 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 100.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 52.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 4.6 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 10.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 52.5 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 52.5 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (NTRA close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +20.64% | +6.40% | Est. Up ≥ 348.85 (-10.2%) · Est. Down < 272.04 |
| Trend · XLV | 1 Established Up (+) → | +10.00% | +0.65% | Est. Up ≥ 382.00 (-1.7%) · Est. Down < 272.04 |
| Trading · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -2.69% | -9.08% | Est. Up ≥ 401.32 (+3.3%) · Est. Down < 387.44 |
| Trading · XLV | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -6.21% | -10.85% | Est. Up ≥ 505.96 (+30.2%) · Early Up ≥ 415.25 · Est. Down < 413.03 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 388.63)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 437.41–437.41 | +12.6% to +12.6% | ATH 10-06 437.41 |
| S1 | 309.20–316.00 | -18.7% to -20.4% | wk low 09-04 316.00 · 50% 309.20 |
| S2 | 266.88–267.62 | -31.1% to -31.3% | 200-day SMA 267.62 · 40-wk SMA 266.88 |
| S3 | 250.00–256.36 | -34.0% to -35.7% | wk high 01-09 256.36 · wk high 01-23 250.00 |
| ATH | 437.41 | +12.6% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 309.20 (-20.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 266.88–267.62.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 266.88 (-31.3%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 250.00–256.36.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 348.85 (-10.2%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 348.85 · Est. Down < 272.04 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 401.32 · Est. Down < 387.44.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 16.60% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
