$1409.38
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · LLY · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 96.2
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 7.7 = 27.7 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 30 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 96.2 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 87.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 7.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 87.2 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 87.2 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (LLY close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +19.28% | +13.95% | Est. Up ≥ 1190.92 (-15.5%) · Est. Down < 986.57 |
| Trend · XLV | 2 Early Up (+) → | +8.67% | +7.79% | Est. Up ≥ 1304.72 (-7.4%) · Est. Down < 1297.82 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +9.59% | +4.65% | Est. Up ≥ 1296.72 (-8.0%) · Est. Down < 986.57 |
| Trading · XLV | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.76% | +2.61% | Est. Up ≥ 1340.12 (-4.9%) · Est. Down < 993.32 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 1409.38)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 1449.68–1449.68 | +2.9% to +2.9% | ATH 10-30 1449.68 |
| S1 | 1215.00–1249.45 | -11.3% to -13.8% | wk high 07-10 1249.45 · wk high 07-31 1232.00 · wk high 10-02 1215.00 |
| S2 | 1150.10–1182.73 | -16.1% to -18.4% | wk high 06-12 1182.73 · 50% 1150.10 |
| S3 | 1109.15–1134.40 | -19.5% to -21.3% | wk low 07-17 1134.40 · wk high 01-09 1133.95 · wk low 10-09 1131.21 · wk high 02-06 1114.00 · wk low 09-11 1113.29 · wk high ’25-11-28 1111.99 · wk low 08-07 1109.15 |
| ATH | 1449.68 | +2.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 1215.00 (-13.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 1150.10–1182.73.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 1150.10 (-18.4%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 1109.15–1134.40.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 1190.92 (-15.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 1190.92 · Est. Down < 986.57 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 1296.72 · Est. Down < 986.57.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.28% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
