$12.20
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · JBS · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 8.4
| Short history (73 wks): RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 0.0 |
| Structure (computable checks) | 0 / 25 |
| Score = points earned × 100 / 55 computable points | 8.4 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays, on the history that exists) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · – Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA n/a (short history) · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. |
Scores · Trading 12.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 8.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 12.8 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 12.8 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (JBS close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) → | -1.69% | -3.14% | Est. Up ≥ 12.78 (+4.8%) · Est. Down < 11.54 |
| Trend · XLP | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -7.51% | -6.07% | Est. Up ≥ 13.61 (+11.6%) · Est. Down < 12.68 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) ↓ | -0.88% | +2.34% | Est. Up ≥ 13.09 (+7.3%) · Early Up ≥ 12.31 · Est. Down < 12.25 |
| Trading · XLP | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.31% | -0.54% | Est. Up ≥ 16.29 (+33.5%) · Early Up ≥ 12.60 · Est. Down < 12.53 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 12.20)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 13.24–13.54 | +8.5% to +11.0% | wk low 01-09 13.24 · wk high 10-16 13.33 · wk low ’25-08-15 13.54 |
| R2 | 12.83–13.02 | +5.2% to +6.7% | wk low ’25-07-11 12.83 · wk low ’25-06-27 13.02 |
| R1 | 12.37–12.71 | +1.4% to +4.2% | wk low ’25-10-17 12.37 · wk high 07-10 12.48 · wk low ’25-11-07 12.62 · wk low 08-14 12.70 · wk high 06-19 12.71 |
| S1 | 11.49–11.73 | -3.9% to -5.8% | wk low 06-26 11.73 · wk low 07-10 11.66 · wk low 06-12 11.49 |
| ATH | 18.65 | +52.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 11.49 (-5.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor: no support nearby.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): No support nearby: only one support band exists below the price, so there is no separate trend stop.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 12.78 (+4.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 12.78 · Est. Down < 11.54 (-5.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 13.09 · Early Up ≥ 12.31 · Est. Down < 12.25.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.15% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLP (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history (73 wks): under the 104 weekly bars of a full card. Checks that need more history (Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA) are left out of both the points earned and the points possible, and the score is rescaled to 0–100 (55 points computable). Trend shows N/A under 10 weekly bars or when fewer than 30 points can be computed. The 2-Friday confirmation uses the history that exists. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
