$24.46
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · IREN · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 8.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 8.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 12.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 12.1 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 12.1 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (IREN close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -35.70% | -10.33% | |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -33.88% | -9.31% | |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -6.69% | -4.95% | Early Up ≥ 26.02 · Est. Down < 25.88 |
| Trading · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.50% | -0.36% | Early Up ≥ 25.21 · Est. Down < 25.07 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 24.46)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 36.52–37.20 | +49.3% to +52.1% | wk low 02-06 36.52 · wk low 01-02 37.20 |
| R2 | 34.81–35.63 | +42.3% to +45.7% | wk low 08-28 34.81 · wk low 03-13 35.63 |
| R1 | 32.22–32.53 | +31.7% to +33.0% | wk low 07-17 32.22 · 61.8% 32.53 |
| S1 | 9.77–9.97 | -59.2% to -60.1% | wk low ’25-01-17 9.97 · wk low ’25-01-03 9.77 |
| S2 | 9.52–9.67 | -60.5% to -61.1% | wk high ’25-05-23 9.67 · wk low ’25-06-20 9.52 |
| S3 | 9.27–9.34 | -61.8% to -62.1% | wk low 2024-11-22 9.34 · wk low ’25-02-07 9.27 |
| ATH | 76.87 | +214.3% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 9.77 (-60.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 9.52–9.67.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 9.52 (-61.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 9.27–9.34.
- Trend vs S&P: (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 26.02 · Est. Down < 25.88.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.08% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
