$200.74
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · FTAI · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 24.5
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 7.7 = 9.7 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 24.5 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 74.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 14.9 / 20 |
| Raw | 74.9 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 74.9 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (FTAI close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -1.16% | +15.06% | Est. Up ≥ 251.09 (+25.1%) · Early Up ≥ 188.54 · Est. Down < 187.54 |
| Trend · XLI | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +2.55% | +14.11% | Est. Up ≥ 215.51 (+7.4%) · Early Up ≥ 182.37 · Est. Down < 181.40 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +19.29% | +4.46% | Est. Up ≥ 169.32 (-15.7%) · Est. Down < 140.52 |
| Trading · XLI | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +15.40% | +1.70% | Est. Up ≥ 174.90 (-12.9%) · Est. Down < 140.52 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 200.74)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 229.13–234.59 | +14.1% to +16.9% | 40-wk SMA 229.13 · wk high 07-24 231.10 · 200-day SMA 231.22 · wk high 08-21 234.59 |
| R2 | 221.84–226.17 | +10.5% to +12.7% | wk low 03-13 221.84 · wk low 04-03 226.17 |
| R1 | 214.53–219.37 | +6.9% to +9.3% | wk low 05-22 214.53 · 50% 216.71 · wk low 06-12 219.37 |
| S1 | 191.50–194.36 | -3.2% to -4.6% | wk high ’25-10-31 194.36 · 61.8% 191.50 |
| S2 | 179.11–184.44 | -8.1% to -10.8% | wk high ’25-09-26 184.44 · wk high ’25-12-12 184.12 · wk high ’25-01-10 181.64 · wk high 10-09 180.02 · wk low 07-31 179.11 |
| S3 | 158.83–162.35 | -19.1% to -20.9% | wk low 10-02 162.35 · wk low ’25-10-03 162.29 · wk low ’25-12-19 162.07 · wk low ’25-10-17 162.05 · wk high ’25-02-21 158.83 |
| ATH | 323.51 | +61.2% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 191.50 (-4.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 179.11–184.44.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 179.11 (-10.8%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 158.83–162.35.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 251.09 (+25.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 188.54 · Est. Down < 187.54 (-6.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 169.32 · Est. Down < 140.52.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.10% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
