$47.99
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $50.47–51.53 | +5.2% to +7.4% | wk high ’25-02-14, wk low 08-28, wk high 04-10 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $46.63 | -2.8% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $45.10 | -6.0% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $49.39 | +2.9% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-06-27, wk high 03-27) |
APPENDIX · FLR · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 28.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 28.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Neutral → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 39.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 10.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 39.3 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 39.3 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (FLR close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -7.74% | +0.85% | Est. Up ≥ 53.80 (+12.1%) · Early Up ≥ 50.99 · Est. Down < 50.72 |
| Trend · XLI | 5 Established Down (+) → | -4.56% | +0.02% | Est. Up ≥ 49.45 (+3.0%) · Est. Down < 45.63 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +5.07% | +2.92% | Est. Up ≥ 48.61 (+1.3%) · Early Up ≥ 45.73 · Est. Down < 45.48 |
| Trading · XLI | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +1.53% | +0.20% | Est. Up ≥ 54.92 (+14.4%) · Early Up ≥ 47.28 · Est. Down < 47.03 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 47.99)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 52.05–53.55 | +8.5% to +11.6% | wk high ’25-10-17 52.05 · wk high 10-09 52.63 · wk high ’25-01-10 52.71 · wk low 2024-12-06 53.35 · wk high 07-24 53.42 · 50% 53.55 |
| R2 | 50.47–51.53 | +5.2% to +7.4% | wk high ’25-02-14 50.47 · wk low 08-28 50.65 · wk high 04-10 50.80 · 61.8% 51.53 |
| R1 | 48.12–49.39 | +0.3% to +2.9% | wk low ’25-06-27 48.12 · wk high 03-27 48.90 · wk low 2024-12-20 49.10 · 40-wk SMA 49.35 · 200-day SMA 49.39 |
| S1 | 46.63–47.81 | -0.4% to -2.8% | wk low 07-10 47.81 · wk low 2024-11-15 47.72 · wk low 10-02 47.50 · wk low ’25-01-17 47.37 · wk low 07-31 46.77 · wk low 04-24 46.63 |
| S2 | 45.10–46.00 | -4.1% to -6.0% | wk high ’25-12-05 46.00 · wk high ’25-09-26 45.54 · wk high 01-09 45.50 · wk low 06-05 45.10 |
| S3 | 42.79–44.11 | -8.1% to -10.8% | wk low 02-06 44.11 · wk high ’25-09-05 43.94 · wk low 04-03 43.69 · wk low 01-23 42.79 |
| ATH | 62.09 | +29.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 46.63 (-2.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 45.10–46.00.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 45.10 (-6.0%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 42.79–44.11.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 53.80 (+12.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 50.99 · Est. Down < 50.72 (+5.7%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 48.61 · Early Up ≥ 45.73 · Est. Down < 45.48.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.99% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
