$331.15
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · FFIV · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 31.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 19 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 31.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up; Down pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 20.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 11 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 6.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 20.3 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 20.3 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (FFIV close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -17.58% | -22.66% | Early Up ≥ 411.25 · Est. Down < 409.06 |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -15.31% | -21.77% | Early Up ≥ 399.33 · Est. Down < 397.20 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -19.64% | -7.07% | Early Up ≥ 410.58 · Est. Down < 408.39 |
| Trading · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -16.89% | -2.58% | Early Up ≥ 397.72 · Est. Down < 395.60 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 331.15)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 363.83–374.40 | +9.9% to +13.1% | 200-day SMA 363.83 · 40-wk SMA 364.57 · wk low 07-31 366.93 · wk low 06-19 374.40 |
| R2 | 346.00–355.92 | +4.5% to +7.5% | wk high ’25-10-10 346.00 · 61.8% 355.92 |
| R1 | 334.00–337.39 | +0.9% to +1.9% | wk high ’25-08-01 334.00 · wk high ’25-09-12 337.39 |
| S1 | 308.41–317.66 | -4.1% to -6.9% | wk low ’25-10-03 317.66 · wk high 04-10 315.34 · wk high ’25-02-21 313.00 · wk low ’25-08-22 308.41 |
| S2 | 298.54–307.00 | -7.3% to -9.8% | wk high ’25-07-18 307.00 · wk high 01-30 303.98 · wk low ’25-09-05 303.61 · wk high ’25-03-07 298.54 |
| S3 | 288.76–297.00 | -10.3% to -12.8% | wk high ’25-06-13 297.00 · wk low ’25-08-01 294.89 · wk low 05-01 290.60 · wk high ’25-05-23 290.34 · wk low ’25-07-18 288.76 |
| ATH | 483.30 | +45.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 308.41 (-6.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 298.54–307.00.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 298.54 (-9.8%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 288.76–297.00.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 411.25 · Est. Down < 409.06 (+23.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 410.58 · Est. Down < 408.39.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.18% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
