$145.23
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $151.89–154.40 | +4.6% to +6.3% | wk high 05-29, wk high 07-31, wk low 2024-11-01 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $141.82 | -2.3% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $134.74 | -7.2% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $149.69 | +3.1% | top of R1 (wk low 01-30, 200-day SMA) |
APPENDIX · DHI · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 46.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 7.7 = 23.1 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 46.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Neutral |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Neutral |
| Trend (confirmed) | Neutral |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 71.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 2.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 10 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 14.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 71.8 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 71.8 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (DHI close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) → | +2.61% | +5.84% | Est. Up ≥ 157.52 (+8.5%) · Early Up ≥ 142.03 · Est. Down < 141.27 |
| Trend · XLY | 2 Early Up (+) → | +0.63% | +2.09% | Est. Up ≥ 152.49 (+5.0%) · Early Up ≥ 145.19 · Est. Down < 144.42 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.74% | +1.10% | Est. Up ≥ 142.47 (-1.9%) · Est. Down < 101.66 |
| Trading · XLY | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -0.76% | -1.84% | Est. Up ≥ 147.15 (+1.3%) · Est. Down < 125.33 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 145.23)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 158.20–162.82 | +8.9% to +12.1% | wk high ’25-12-19 158.20 · 61.8% 158.55 · wk low 2024-11-22 158.63 · wk high ’25-10-24 161.58 · wk high 01-16 161.93 · wk low ’25-09-26 162.82 |
| R2 | 151.89–154.40 | +4.6% to +6.3% | wk high 05-29 151.89 · wk high 07-31 152.74 · wk low 2024-11-01 152.99 · wk high ’25-07-25 154.19 · wk high ’25-01-24 154.22 · wk high 08-21 154.40 |
| R1 | 145.94–149.69 | +0.5% to +3.1% | wk low 01-30 145.94 · 200-day SMA 147.49 · 40-wk SMA 147.50 · wk low 07-10 147.86 · wk low ’25-10-10 149.69 |
| S1 | 141.82–144.86 | -0.3% to -2.3% | wk high 09-25 144.86 · wk low 06-12 143.63 · wk high ’25-07-11 141.82 |
| S2 | 134.74–138.83 | -4.4% to -7.2% | wk low 07-24 138.83 · wk high ’25-03-14 138.13 · wk low 01-09 137.70 · wk low ’25-01-17 136.23 · wk low 2024-12-20 135.00 · wk low ’25-11-21 134.74 |
| S3 | 130.27–133.88 | -7.8% to -10.3% | wk low 09-11 133.88 · wk low 05-22 133.84 · wk low 04-03 132.39 · wk low 03-20 131.75 · wk low 10-16 130.40 · wk high ’25-06-13 130.27 |
| ATH | 199.85 | +37.6% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 141.82 (-2.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 134.74–138.83.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 134.74 (-7.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 130.27–133.88.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 157.52 (+8.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 142.03 · Est. Down < 141.27 (-2.7%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 142.47 · Est. Down < 101.66.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.93% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLY (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
