DFTX
Definium Therapeutics
$33.41
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $48.50–49.70 | +45.2% to +48.8% | wk high 07-17, wk high 07-03, wk high 08-07 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $29.78 | -10.9% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $19.67 | -41.1% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $40.62 | +21.6% | top of R1 (wk low 07-31, wk low 08-14) |
APPENDIX · DFTX · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 38.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 38.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 40.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 13 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 14.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 40.2 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 40.2 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (DFTX close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -7.77% | +14.36% | Early Up ≥ 39.13 · Est. Down < 38.92 |
| Trend · XLV | 5 Established Down (+) → | -16.29% | +8.18% | Early Up ≥ 43.02 · Est. Down < 42.79 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -3.53% | -10.22% | Est. Up ≥ 35.04 (+4.9%) · Early Up ≥ 34.81 · Est. Down < 34.62 |
| Trading · XLV | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -7.01% | -11.98% | Early Up ≥ 36.01 · Est. Down < 35.82 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 33.41)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 48.50–49.70 | +45.2% to +48.8% | wk high 07-17 48.50 · wk high 07-03 49.20 · wk high 08-07 49.70 |
| R1 | 40.29–40.62 | +20.6% to +21.6% | wk low 07-31 40.29 · wk low 08-14 40.62 |
| S1 | 29.78–30.00 | -10.2% to -10.9% | 40-wk SMA 30.00 · 200-day SMA 29.78 |
| S2 | 19.67–20.27 | -39.3% to -41.1% | wk low 05-01 20.27 · wk high 03-20 19.67 |
| S3 | 17.13–17.25 | -48.4% to -48.7% | wk low 03-20 17.25 · wk low 04-03 17.13 |
| ATH | 86.55 | +159.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 29.78 (-10.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 19.67–20.27.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 19.67 (-41.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 17.13–17.25.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 39.13 · Est. Down < 38.92 (+16.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 35.04 · Early Up ≥ 34.81 · Est. Down < 34.62.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.32% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
