$10.11
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $12.56–12.78 | +24.2% to +26.4% | wk low ’25-11-14, wk low ’25-11-28, wk high 09-25 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $8.63 | -14.6% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $8.50 | -15.9% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $10.34 | +2.3% | top of R1 (wk high ’25-06-20, wk high ’25-08-29) |
APPENDIX · DBVT · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 13.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 13.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 59.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 5.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 59.8 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 59.8 Neutral |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (DBVT close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -21.55% | +5.96% | Early Up ≥ 11.94 · Est. Down < 11.88 |
| Trend · XLV | 5 Established Down (+) → | -28.88% | +0.23% | Early Up ≥ 13.15 · Est. Down < 13.08 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +6.62% | +0.22% | Est. Up ≥ 9.57 (-5.3%) · Est. Down < 7.52 |
| Trading · XLV | 2 Early Up (−) → | +2.81% | -1.74% | Est. Up ≥ 10.27 (+1.6%) · Early Up ≥ 9.90 · Est. Down < 9.84 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 10.11)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 16.49–16.94 | +63.1% to +67.6% | wk low 01-09 16.49 · 40-wk SMA 16.50 · 200-day SMA 16.85 · wk high ’25-10-31 16.94 |
| R2 | 12.56–12.78 | +24.2% to +26.4% | wk low ’25-11-14 12.56 · wk low ’25-11-28 12.70 · wk high 09-25 12.73 · wk high ’25-05-16 12.78 |
| R1 | 10.12–10.34 | +0.1% to +2.3% | wk high ’25-06-20 10.12 · wk high ’25-08-29 10.34 |
| S1 | 8.63–8.85 | -12.5% to -14.6% | wk low ’25-09-26 8.85 · wk low ’25-09-12 8.70 · wk low 10-16 8.63 |
| S2 | 8.50–8.51 | -15.8% to -15.9% | wk low ’25-08-01 8.51 · wk low ’25-06-27 8.50 |
| S3 | 5.30–5.42 | -46.4% to -47.6% | wk high ’25-01-17 5.42 · wk high ’25-03-14 5.30 |
| ATH | 53.96 | +433.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 8.63 (-14.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 8.50–8.51.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 8.50 (-15.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 5.30–5.42.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 11.94 · Est. Down < 11.88 (+17.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 9.57 · Est. Down < 7.52.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.12% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
