$19.49
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $20.41–21.00 | +4.7% to +7.7% | 200-day SMA, 61.8% retr., wk high 04-10 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $18.84 | -3.3% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $17.89 | -8.2% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $20.35 | +4.4% | top of R1 (wk low 03-13, wk high 2024-12-06) |
APPENDIX · DAKT · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 45.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 12.0 + 10.0 = 22.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 45.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Neutral |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down; Neutral pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 71.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 14 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 15.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 71.9 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 71.9 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (DAKT close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 3 Neutral (+) ↓ | +0.19% | +4.65% | Est. Up ≥ 20.51 (+5.2%) · Early Up ≥ 18.84 · Est. Down < 18.74 |
| Trend · XLK | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +2.69% | +5.85% | Est. Up ≥ 19.94 (+2.3%) · Early Up ≥ 18.34 · Est. Down < 18.24 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.35% | +0.51% | Est. Up ≥ 19.21 (-1.4%) · Est. Down < 14.65 |
| Trading · XLK | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.70% | +5.36% | Est. Up ≥ 18.63 (-4.4%) · Est. Down < 13.64 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 19.49)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 21.28–21.87 | +9.2% to +12.2% | wk high ’25-12-12 21.28 · wk high 06-26 21.65 · wk high 09-04 21.82 · wk high 06-12 21.86 · wk high 03-27 21.87 |
| R2 | 20.41–21.00 | +4.7% to +7.7% | 200-day SMA 20.41 · 61.8% 20.43 · wk high 04-10 20.65 · wk high 05-15 20.87 · wk high 07-10 20.90 · wk high 05-29 20.98 · wk high ’25-10-31 21.00 |
| R1 | 19.76–20.35 | +1.4% to +4.4% | wk low 03-13 19.76 · wk high 2024-12-06 19.89 · 40-wk SMA 20.35 |
| S1 | 18.84–19.38 | -0.6% to -3.3% | wk high ’25-11-28 19.38 · wk low ’25-10-10 19.05 · wk low 07-17 18.98 · wk low 05-01 18.96 · wk low 08-28 18.90 · wk low 05-22 18.84 |
| S2 | 17.89–18.42 | -5.5% to -8.2% | wk low ’25-10-31 18.42 · wk low ’25-12-26 18.11 · wk high ’25-08-15 17.99 · wk high ’25-01-24 17.89 |
| S3 | 16.75–17.17 | -11.9% to -14.1% | wk low ’25-11-21 17.17 · wk low ’25-12-05 17.09 · wk high ’25-07-11 17.03 · wk low 10-02 16.77 · wk high ’25-02-21 16.75 |
| ATH | 28.27 | +45.0% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 18.84 (-3.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 17.89–18.42.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 17.89 (-8.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 16.75–17.17.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 20.51 (+5.2%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 18.84 · Est. Down < 18.74 (-3.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 19.21 · Est. Down < 14.65.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.42% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
