$71.28
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $75.11–77.19 | +5.4% to +8.3% | wk high 05-29, wk high ’25-08-29, wk high 08-14 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $68.99 | -3.2% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $66.41 | -6.8% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $74.46 | +4.5% | top of R1 (61.8% retr., wk high 07-17) |
APPENDIX · CVNA · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 65.2
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 7.7 = 23.1 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 16 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 65.2 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down; Up pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 85.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 14 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 16.9 / 20 |
| Raw | 85.9 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 85.9 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CVNA close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +3.43% | +17.30% | Est. Up ≥ 66.04 (-7.4%) · Est. Down < 65.69 |
| Trend · XLY | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +1.45% | +13.14% | Est. Up ≥ 67.50 (-5.3%) · Est. Down < 63.81 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +16.91% | +6.44% | Est. Up ≥ 61.44 (-13.8%) · Est. Down < 49.90 |
| Trading · XLY | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +13.02% | +3.34% | Est. Up ≥ 63.39 (-11.1%) · Est. Down < 49.90 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 71.28)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 78.17–80.20 | +9.7% to +12.5% | wk low 01-02 78.17 · wk high ’25-09-19 79.39 · wk high ’25-10-03 80.20 |
| R2 | 75.11–77.19 | +5.4% to +8.3% | wk high 05-29 75.11 · wk high ’25-08-29 75.71 · wk high 08-14 76.07 · wk high 08-28 76.80 · 50% 77.19 |
| R1 | 72.43–74.46 | +1.6% to +4.5% | 61.8% 72.43 · wk high 07-17 72.77 · wk high ’25-07-11 72.80 · wk high 06-12 73.55 · wk high ’25-10-31 74.46 |
| S1 | 68.99–71.00 | -0.4% to -3.2% | wk low ’25-09-26 71.00 · wk high ’25-06-06 70.29 · wk low ’25-09-12 69.81 · wk high ’25-11-14 69.05 · 200-day SMA 68.99 |
| S2 | 66.41–67.93 | -4.7% to -6.8% | 40-wk SMA 67.93 · wk high 03-13 66.41 |
| S3 | 63.63–65.17 | -8.6% to -10.7% | wk low ’25-07-25 65.17 · wk low 08-21 64.76 · wk low ’25-08-22 63.63 |
| ATH | 97.38 | +36.6% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 68.99 (-3.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 66.41–67.93.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 66.41 (-6.8%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 63.63–65.17.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 66.04 (-7.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 66.04 · Est. Down < 65.69 (-7.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 61.44 · Est. Down < 49.90.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.19% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLY (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
