$15.23
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $16.74–17.20 | +9.9% to +12.9% | wk low 02-06, wk high 08-28, wk low 02-20 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $14.92 | -2.0% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | No support nearby | — | only one support band below the price (AUDITFIX_V1) |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $15.96 | +4.8% | top of R1 (wk low 08-21, wk high 10-09) |
APPENDIX · CPNG · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 3.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 0.0 = 2.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 0 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 3.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 49.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 10 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 14.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 49.6 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 49.6 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CPNG close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -5.09% | +1.76% | Early Up ≥ 15.07 · Est. Down < 14.99 |
| Trend · XLY | 5 Established Down (−) → | -6.86% | -1.85% | Early Up ≥ 15.40 · Est. Down < 15.31 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +7.97% | +6.62% | Est. Up ≥ 14.15 (-7.1%) · Est. Down < 13.62 |
| Trading · XLY | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +4.25% | +3.52% | Est. Up ≥ 17.09 (+12.2%) · Early Up ≥ 14.61 · Est. Down < 14.54 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 15.23)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 19.02–19.53 | +24.9% to +28.2% | wk low ’25-04-11 19.02 · wk high 07-10 19.53 |
| R2 | 16.74–17.20 | +9.9% to +12.9% | wk low 02-06 16.74 · wk high 08-28 16.80 · wk low 02-20 16.92 · 40-wk SMA 17.09 · 200-day SMA 17.20 |
| R1 | 15.56–15.96 | +2.2% to +4.8% | wk low 08-21 15.56 · wk high 10-09 15.96 |
| S1 | 14.92–15.03 | -1.3% to -2.0% | wk low 05-22 15.03 · wk low 07-31 14.96 · wk low 06-12 14.92 |
| ATH | 69.00 | +353.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 14.92 (-2.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor: no support nearby.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): No support nearby: only one support band exists below the price, so there is no separate trend stop.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 15.07 · Est. Down < 14.99 (-1.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 14.15 · Est. Down < 13.62.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.89% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLY (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
