$14.14
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · CLF · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 85.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 21 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 85.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Neutral → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 58.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 17 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 6.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 58.6 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 58.6 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CLF close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +18.93% | +18.81% | Est. Up ≥ 12.19 (-13.8%) · Est. Down < 9.90 |
| Trend · XLB | 1 Established Up (+) → | +14.51% | +13.52% | Est. Up ≥ 12.67 (-10.4%) · Est. Down < 9.90 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.55% | +1.14% | Est. Up ≥ 13.51 (-4.5%) · Est. Down < 9.90 |
| Trading · XLB | 1 Established Up (−) → | +2.22% | -0.95% | Est. Up ≥ 13.91 (-1.6%) · Est. Down < 12.52 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 14.14)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 15.06–15.35 | +6.5% to +8.6% | wk high 06-05 15.06 · wk high 01-30 15.35 |
| R1 | 14.24–14.58 | +0.7% to +3.1% | wk high 06-19 14.24 · wk high 2024-11-08 14.34 · wk high ’25-10-10 14.51 · wk high 10-23 14.58 |
| S1 | 13.22–13.55 | -4.2% to -6.5% | wk high ’25-12-12 13.55 · wk high 2024-10-04 13.39 · wk high 2024-12-06 13.22 |
| S2 | 12.81–13.11 | -7.3% to -9.4% | wk high 09-18 13.11 · wk high 08-07 12.86 · wk high 09-04 12.81 |
| S3 | 11.96–12.26 | -13.3% to -15.4% | wk high ’25-02-14 12.26 · wk low 2024-10-11 12.24 · wk low ’25-12-12 12.14 · wk low 06-12 12.12 · wk high ’25-07-25 11.96 |
| ATH | 34.04 | +140.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 13.22 (-6.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 12.81–13.11.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 12.81 (-9.4%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 11.96–12.26.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 12.19 (-13.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 12.19 · Est. Down < 9.90 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 13.51 · Est. Down < 9.90.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.76% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
