$149.77
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · CDW · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 83.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 83.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 42.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 4.6 + 4.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 7.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 42.6 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 42.6 Early Down |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CDW close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +7.64% | +3.27% | Est. Up ≥ 143.76 (-4.0%) · Est. Down < 126.12 |
| Trend · XLK | 1 Established Up (+) → | +10.39% | +4.45% | Est. Up ≥ 139.90 (-6.6%) · Est. Down < 121.95 |
| Trading · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -3.36% | -7.53% | Est. Up ≥ 155.95 (+4.1%) · Est. Down < 133.01 |
| Trading · XLK | 3 Neutral (−) ↓ | -0.16% | -3.06% | Est. Up ≥ 151.20 (+1.0%) · Est. Down < 104.84 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 149.77)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 162.84–167.00 | +8.7% to +11.5% | wk low ’25-03-14 162.84 · wk high 10-23 166.15 · wk high ’25-10-03 167.00 |
| R2 | 156.66–161.10 | +4.6% to +7.6% | wk low ’25-09-26 156.66 · wk high 09-04 158.05 · wk low ’25-08-08 159.69 · wk low ’25-09-05 160.19 · wk high ’25-11-07 161.00 · wk high ’25-10-24 161.10 |
| R1 | 150.61–154.99 | +0.6% to +3.5% | wk high ’25-12-12 150.61 · wk high 08-07 154.50 · wk high 09-18 154.99 |
| S1 | 143.64–146.98 | -1.9% to -4.1% | wk low ’25-04-25 146.98 · wk high 07-17 145.80 · wk low ’25-10-10 144.90 · wk high 02-13 144.46 · wk high 04-24 143.64 |
| S2 | 137.31–141.46 | -5.5% to -8.3% | wk high 06-05 141.46 · wk low 09-11 140.91 · wk low ’25-11-07 138.52 · wk low ’25-04-11 137.31 |
| S3 | 133.24–136.09 | -9.1% to -11.0% | wk high 01-16 136.09 · wk low ’25-11-21 135.63 · 200-day SMA 133.32 · 40-wk SMA 133.24 |
| ATH | 263.37 | +75.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 143.64 (-4.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 137.31–141.46.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 137.31 (-8.3%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 133.24–136.09.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 143.76 (-4.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 143.76 · Est. Down < 126.12 (-15.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 155.95 · Est. Down < 133.01.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 2.01% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
