$32.85
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
APPENDIX · CAI · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 90.9
| Short history (72 wks): RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 |
| Structure (computable checks) | 20 / 25 |
| Score = points earned × 100 / 55 computable points | 90.9 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays, on the history that exists) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · – Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA n/a (short history) · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. |
Scores · Trading 63.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 2.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.9 / 20 |
| Raw | 63.7 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 63.7 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CAI close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +35.36% | +13.51% | Est. Up ≥ 26.01 (-20.8%) · Est. Down < 22.99 |
| Trend · XLV | 1 Established Up (+) → | +23.69% | +7.38% | Est. Up ≥ 28.42 (-13.5%) · Est. Down < 22.99 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +2.50% | -7.28% | Est. Up ≥ 32.31 (-1.6%) · Est. Down < 22.99 |
| Trading · XLV | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -1.15% | -9.09% | Est. Up ≥ 33.41 (+1.7%) · Est. Down < 30.96 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 32.85)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 32.89–33.65 | +0.1% to +2.4% | wk high 09-25 32.89 · wk high ’25-07-18 33.41 · wk high ’25-10-10 33.65 |
| S1 | 31.93–32.56 | -0.9% to -2.8% | wk high 10-09 32.56 · 61.8% 31.93 |
| S2 | 28.71–29.32 | -10.7% to -12.6% | wk high 01-09 29.32 · wk low ’25-10-17 29.25 · wk high ’25-12-12 29.19 · wk high ’25-12-26 28.71 |
| S3 | 28.20–28.32 | -13.8% to -14.2% | wk high 08-28 28.32 · wk low ’25-09-26 28.20 |
| ATH | 42.50 | +29.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 31.93 (-2.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 28.71–29.32.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 28.71 (-12.6%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 28.20–28.32.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 26.01 (-20.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 26.01 · Est. Down < 22.99 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 32.31 · Est. Down < 22.99.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.65% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history (72 wks): under the 104 weekly bars of a full card. Checks that need more history (Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA) are left out of both the points earned and the points possible, and the score is rescaled to 0–100 (55 points computable). Trend shows N/A under 10 weekly bars or when fewer than 30 points can be computed. The 2-Friday confirmation uses the history that exists. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
