$152.17
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $178.44–183.67 | +17.3% to +20.7% | wk high 09-25, wk high 08-14, wk high 04-10 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $150.16 | -1.3% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $144.06 | -5.3% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $162.00 | +6.5% | top of R1 (wk low 04-17, wk high 07-10) |
APPENDIX · BLTE · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 32.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 8.6 + 1.0 = 9.6 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 10 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 32.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 41.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 1.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 41.8 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 41.8 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (BLTE close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (+) ↑ | -2.54% | +9.51% | Est. Up ≥ 159.62 (+4.9%) · Est. Down < 147.23 |
| Trend · XLV | 5 Established Down (+) → | -11.45% | +3.59% | Est. Up ≥ 189.14 (+24.3%) · Early Up ≥ 175.38 · Est. Down < 174.45 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +2.89% | +3.28% | Est. Up ≥ 148.17 (-2.6%) · Est. Down < 144.37 |
| Trading · XLV | 5 Established Down (+) → | -0.81% | +1.27% | Est. Up ≥ 190.61 (+25.3%) · Early Up ≥ 153.24 · Est. Down < 152.43 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 152.17)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 198.58–200.00 | +30.5% to +31.4% | wk high 09-11 198.58 · ATH 02-03 200.00 |
| R2 | 178.44–183.67 | +17.3% to +20.7% | wk high 09-25 178.44 · wk high 08-14 181.56 · wk high 04-10 183.67 |
| R1 | 157.63–162.00 | +3.6% to +6.5% | wk low 04-17 157.63 · wk high 07-10 158.90 · 40-wk SMA 159.71 · 200-day SMA 160.37 · wk high 10-16 161.00 · wk high ’25-12-19 162.00 |
| S1 | 150.16–151.50 | -0.4% to -1.3% | wk low 01-02 151.50 · wk high 05-29 151.40 · wk low 09-04 150.16 |
| S2 | 144.06–146.61 | -3.7% to -5.3% | wk low 03-27 146.61 · wk low 01-16 146.06 · wk low 07-17 144.06 |
| S3 | 140.99–141.62 | -6.9% to -7.3% | wk low 10-16 141.62 · wk low 07-03 140.99 |
| ATH | 200.00 | +31.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 150.16 (-1.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 144.06–146.61.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 144.06 (-5.3%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 140.99–141.62.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 159.62 (+4.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 159.62 · Est. Down < 147.23 (-3.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 148.17 · Est. Down < 144.37.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.31% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
