$202.49
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Duquesne 13F holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $229.87–234.74 | +13.5% to +15.9% | 200-day SMA, 40-wk SMA, 61.8% retr. |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $180.34 | -10.9% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $164.16 | -18.9% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $225.46 | +11.3% | top of R1 (wk low 08-07, wk low 09-04) |
APPENDIX · ARM · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 15.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 9 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 15.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 17.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 11.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 17.0 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 17.0 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (ARM close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -19.44% | -8.64% | Early Up ≥ 255.30 · Est. Down < 253.94 |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -17.17% | -7.59% | Early Up ≥ 247.68 · Est. Down < 246.36 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.38% | -9.72% | Early Up ≥ 218.16 · Est. Down < 216.99 |
| Trading · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -4.25% | -5.35% | Early Up ≥ 211.40 · Est. Down < 210.27 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 202.49)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 237.68–243.12 | +17.4% to +20.1% | wk high 04-24 237.68 · wk low 09-18 238.03 · wk high 05-08 239.50 · wk low 07-17 243.12 |
| R2 | 229.87–234.74 | +13.5% to +15.9% | 200-day SMA 229.87 · 40-wk SMA 234.38 · 61.8% 234.74 |
| R1 | 219.39–225.46 | +8.3% to +11.3% | wk low 08-07 219.39 · wk low 09-04 225.46 |
| S1 | 180.34–183.16 | -9.5% to -10.9% | wk high ’25-10-31 183.16 · wk high ’25-01-24 182.88 · wk high ’25-10-17 180.34 |
| S2 | 164.16–168.31 | -16.9% to -18.9% | wk high ’25-07-04 168.31 · wk high ’25-08-01 166.88 · wk high 03-27 166.69 · wk high 2024-10-18 164.16 |
| S3 | 156.40–158.89 | -21.5% to -22.8% | wk high ’25-09-12 158.89 · wk high 2024-11-01 157.69 · wk high 2024-12-13 156.40 |
| ATH | 452.70 | +123.6% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 180.34 (-10.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 164.16–168.31.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 164.16 (-18.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 156.40–158.89.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 255.30 · Est. Down < 253.94 (+25.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 218.16 · Est. Down < 216.99.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Duquesne Family Office (13F) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: SEC 13F-HR for the quarter ended Tue, Jun 30, 2026, filed Fri, Aug 14, 2026 (SEC EDGAR 13F-HR 0001536411-26-000006 (period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14); https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1536411&type=13F); weight 0.19% of the reported 13F portfolio value (incl. option lines). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history: the 200-wk SMA is not available, so that structure check scores 0. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
