$200.19
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL constituent · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $236.99–238.22 | +18.4% to +19.0% | wk high ’25-10-10, wk high 01-16, wk high ’25-12-19 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $194.50 | -2.8% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $186.90 | -6.6% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $217.29 | +8.5% | top of R1 (wk low 01-02, wk low ’25-12-19) |
APPENDIX · SHOP.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 95.0
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 18.0 + 9.0 = 27.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 30 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 95.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 35.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 15 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 35.7 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 35.7 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (SHOP.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 1 Established Up (−) → | +9.21% | -6.63% | Est. Up ≥ 204.12 (+2.0%) · Est. Down < 140.13 |
| Trend · XIT.TO | 1 Established Up (−) → | +4.16% | -5.76% | Est. Up ≥ 213.00 (+6.4%) · Est. Down < 167.27 |
| Trading · TSX | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -13.54% | -12.61% | Early Up ≥ 231.21 · Est. Down < 229.97 |
| Trading · XIT.TO | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -10.31% | -10.14% | Early Up ≥ 223.29 · Est. Down < 222.10 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 200.19)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 253.10–255.95 | +26.4% to +27.9% | wk high ’25-10-31 253.10 · ATH 10-14 255.95 |
| R2 | 236.99–238.22 | +18.4% to +19.0% | wk high ’25-10-10 236.99 · wk high 01-16 237.10 · wk high ’25-12-19 238.22 |
| R1 | 213.31–217.29 | +6.6% to +8.5% | wk low 01-02 213.31 · wk low ’25-12-19 214.00 · wk high ’25-08-08 215.75 · wk high 08-28 217.29 |
| S1 | 194.50–198.57 | -0.8% to -2.8% | wk low 08-21 198.57 · wk low ’25-09-26 194.50 |
| S2 | 186.90–192.48 | -3.9% to -6.6% | 50% 192.48 · wk low ’25-11-21 190.79 · wk high 02-13 189.59 · wk high 04-24 187.20 · wk low ’25-08-22 186.90 |
| S3 | 180.17–185.44 | -7.4% to -10.0% | wk high 03-06 185.44 · wk high 07-10 184.96 · wk low ’25-09-05 184.01 · wk high ’25-02-21 183.53 · 200-day SMA 180.17 |
| ATH | 255.95 | +27.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 194.50 (-2.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 186.90–192.48.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 186.90 (-6.6%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 180.17–185.44.
- Trend vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 204.12 (+2.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 204.12 · Est. Down < 140.13 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Early Up ≥ 231.21 · Est. Down < 229.97.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); List weight 2.50%. Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XIT.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
