$97.07
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL alternative · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $103.59–105.90 | +6.7% to +9.1% | wk high 10-09, 61.8% retr., wk high 05-08 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $93.26 | -3.9% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $92.64 | -4.6% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $99.37 | +2.4% | top of R1 (40-wk SMA, wk high 01-30) |
APPENDIX · NTR.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 47.7
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 10.0 = 14.6 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 47.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Neutral |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Neutral |
| Trend (confirmed) | Neutral |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 46.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 6 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 12.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 46.5 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 46.5 Neutral |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (NTR.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 4 Early Down (−) → | -2.13% | -2.32% | Est. Up ≥ 99.59 (+2.6%) · Est. Down < 91.59 |
| Trend · XMA.TO | 1 Established Up (+) → | +9.94% | +9.11% | Est. Up ≥ 94.17 (-3.0%) · Early Up ≥ 87.69 · Est. Down < 87.22 |
| Trading · TSX | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +0.82% | +3.42% | Est. Up ≥ 98.69 (+1.7%) · Early Up ≥ 96.33 · Est. Down < 95.81 |
| Trading · XMA.TO | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.78% | +5.66% | Est. Up ≥ 92.04 (-5.2%) · Est. Down < 67.95 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 97.07)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 112.54–113.77 | +15.9% to +17.2% | 50% 112.54 · wk high 09-11 113.77 |
| R2 | 103.59–105.90 | +6.7% to +9.1% | wk high 10-09 103.59 · 61.8% 104.19 · wk high 05-08 105.90 |
| R1 | 98.57–99.37 | +1.5% to +2.4% | 40-wk SMA 98.57 · wk high 01-30 98.67 · wk low 03-27 99.05 · wk high 07-31 99.37 |
| S1 | 93.26–95.79 | -1.3% to -3.9% | wk low 10-09 95.79 · wk low 04-17 94.78 · wk low 10-23 94.12 · wk low 05-08 93.26 |
| S2 | 92.64–92.81 | -4.4% to -4.6% | wk low 07-24 92.81 · wk low 02-06 92.64 |
| S3 | 88.00–89.50 | -7.8% to -9.3% | wk low 08-07 89.50 · wk high ’25-06-20 88.03 · wk high ’25-12-19 88.00 |
| ATH | 147.93 | +52.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 93.26 (-3.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 92.64–92.81.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 92.64 (-4.6%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 88.00–89.50.
- Trend vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 99.59 (+2.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 99.59 · Est. Down < 91.59 (-5.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 98.69 · Early Up ≥ 96.33 · Est. Down < 95.81.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); Grid Alternative (Basic Materials; no Focus List weight; recommended for 2.5% positions). Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XMA.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
