$38.30
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL alternative · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $39.61–40.58 | +3.4% to +6.0% | wk low 05-01, wk low 07-31, wk high 02-20 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $32.42 | -15.4% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $29.98 | -21.7% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $38.82 | +1.4% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-08-01, wk high ’25-10-10) |
APPENDIX · MDA.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 23.3
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 23.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 14.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 14.9 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 14.9 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (MDA.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.90% | -3.20% | Early Up ≥ 41.76 · Est. Down < 41.54 |
| Trend · ZIN.TO | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.57% | -3.34% | Est. Up ≥ 49.77 (+29.9%) · Early Up ≥ 41.74 · Est. Down < 41.52 |
| Trading · TSX | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -1.50% | -4.16% | Est. Up ≥ 44.55 (+16.3%) · Early Up ≥ 38.97 · Est. Down < 38.76 |
| Trading · ZIN.TO | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -5.39% | -6.82% | Est. Up ≥ 47.11 (+23.0%) · Early Up ≥ 40.63 · Est. Down < 40.41 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 38.30)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 40.99–41.49 | +7.0% to +8.3% | wk low 07-17 40.99 · wk high 01-30 41.43 · wk low ’25-08-15 41.49 |
| R2 | 39.61–40.58 | +3.4% to +6.0% | wk low 05-01 39.61 · wk low 07-31 39.85 · wk high 02-20 40.58 |
| R1 | 38.43–38.82 | +0.3% to +1.4% | wk low ’25-08-01 38.43 · wk high ’25-10-10 38.59 · 61.8% 38.82 |
| S1 | 32.42–33.15 | -13.4% to -15.4% | wk low 02-13 33.15 · wk low 04-03 32.42 |
| S2 | 29.98–30.57 | -20.2% to -21.7% | wk low ’25-09-12 30.57 · wk high ’25-01-03 30.00 · wk high 2024-12-13 29.98 |
| S3 | 28.91–29.23 | -23.7% to -24.5% | wk high ’25-03-28 29.23 · wk high ’25-01-24 28.91 |
| ATH | 67.90 | +77.3% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 32.42 (-15.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 29.98–30.57.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 29.98 (-21.7%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 28.91–29.23.
- Trend vs TSX: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 41.76 · Est. Down < 41.54 (+8.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 44.55 · Early Up ≥ 38.97 · Est. Down < 38.76.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); Grid Alternative (Industrials; no Focus List weight; recommended for <=2% positions). Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and ZIN.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
