$262.73
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL constituent · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $271.25–277.48 | +3.2% to +5.6% | wk low ’25-04-11, wk high ’25-10-03, wk high 2024-10-18 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $253.86 | -3.4% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $246.32 | -6.2% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $270.72 | +3.0% | top of R1 (wk low 06-05, wk high 05-01) |
APPENDIX · IFC.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 13.3
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 13.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 50.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 6.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 10 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 8.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 50.2 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 50.2 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (IFC.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 5 Established Down (+) → | -0.94% | +4.44% | Est. Up ≥ 333.60 (+27.0%) · Early Up ≥ 261.55 · Est. Down < 260.16 |
| Trend · XFN.TO | 5 Established Down (+) ↓ | -2.19% | +0.66% | Est. Up ≥ 314.10 (+19.6%) · Early Up ≥ 265.89 · Est. Down < 264.48 |
| Trading · TSX | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.39% | +2.19% | Est. Up ≥ 258.21 (-1.7%) · Est. Down < 202.16 |
| Trading · XFN.TO | 3 Neutral (+) ↓ | -0.20% | +1.06% | Est. Up ≥ 264.56 (+0.7%) · Est. Down < 238.75 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 262.73)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 281.04–288.77 | +7.0% to +9.9% | wk high ’25-09-12 281.04 · wk high 05-22 281.21 · wk high ’25-08-22 283.14 · 50% 283.82 · wk low ’25-05-16 286.09 · wk high 06-12 286.38 · wk high ’25-12-19 287.83 · wk high 01-09 288.09 · wk high ’25-11-28 288.77 |
| R2 | 271.25–277.48 | +3.2% to +5.6% | wk low ’25-04-11 271.25 · wk high ’25-10-03 271.73 · wk high 2024-10-18 271.81 · wk low ’25-08-29 272.08 · wk low ’25-12-05 272.28 · … +4 more · wk high 09-04 275.43 · wk high 2024-12-13 275.84 · 61.8% 275.90 · wk low ’25-08-15 277.36 · wk low ’25-03-21 277.48 |
| R1 | 263.13–270.72 | +0.2% to +3.0% | wk low 06-05 263.13 · wk high 05-01 263.99 · wk low 2024-11-29 264.84 · wk high 2024-10-04 265.10 · 200-day SMA 265.13 · 40-wk SMA 265.14 · wk high ’25-01-03 265.99 · wk high 02-27 267.39 · wk high 10-23 269.00 · wk high 02-06 270.72 |
| S1 | 253.86–261.53 | -0.5% to -3.4% | wk low 08-21 261.53 · wk low ’25-09-26 261.44 · wk high 03-20 261.00 · wk high ’25-01-24 259.98 · wk low 2024-11-08 259.39 · wk low 2024-12-20 257.77 · wk low ’25-10-24 254.28 · wk low 09-11 253.86 |
| S2 | 246.32–253.23 | -3.6% to -6.2% | wk low 2024-10-11 253.23 · wk low ’25-01-17 250.28 · wk low 03-13 246.32 |
| S3 | 242.87–245.34 | -6.6% to -7.6% | wk low 05-08 245.34 · wk low 01-30 244.01 · wk low 04-03 242.87 |
| ATH | 317.35 | +20.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 253.86 (-3.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 246.32–253.23.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 246.32 (-6.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 242.87–245.34.
- Trend vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 333.60 (+27.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 261.55 · Est. Down < 260.16 (-1.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 258.21 · Est. Down < 202.16.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); List weight 2.50%. Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XFN.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
