$30.02
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL constituent · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $33.40–34.34 | +11.3% to +14.4% | wk high 07-24, wk low 06-12, 40-wk SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $29.51 | -1.7% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $24.04 | -19.9% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $32.37 | +7.8% | top of R1 (wk low 02-20, wk low 05-22) |
APPENDIX · HBM.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 25.0
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 1.0 = 1.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 25.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 22.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 17.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 22.5 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 22.5 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (HBM.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -13.81% | -7.44% | Est. Up ≥ 35.83 (+19.4%) · Est. Down < 29.35 |
| Trend · XMA.TO | 5 Established Down (+) → | -2.64% | +3.38% | Est. Up ≥ 31.42 (+4.7%) · Est. Down < 30.08 |
| Trading · TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -5.94% | -6.23% | Early Up ≥ 31.82 · Est. Down < 31.65 |
| Trading · XMA.TO | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.17% | -4.20% | Est. Up ≥ 36.06 (+20.1%) · Early Up ≥ 30.37 · Est. Down < 30.21 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 30.02)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 36.06–36.20 | +20.1% to +20.6% | wk high 04-17 36.06 · wk low 08-21 36.20 |
| R2 | 33.40–34.34 | +11.3% to +14.4% | wk high 07-24 33.40 · wk low 06-12 33.70 · 40-wk SMA 34.28 · wk low 09-18 34.34 |
| R1 | 31.80–32.37 | +5.9% to +7.8% | wk low 02-20 31.80 · wk low 05-22 31.87 · 50% 32.37 |
| S1 | 29.51–29.61 | -1.4% to -1.7% | wk low 05-08 29.61 · 61.8% 29.51 |
| S2 | 24.04–24.75 | -17.6% to -19.9% | wk high ’25-10-17 24.75 · wk high ’25-11-14 24.22 · wk low 03-20 24.04 |
| S3 | 20.72–20.94 | -30.2% to -31.0% | wk low ’25-11-07 20.94 · wk low ’25-10-24 20.72 |
| ATH | 44.48 | +48.2% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 29.51 (-1.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 24.04–24.75.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 24.04 (-19.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 20.72–20.94.
- Trend vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 35.83 (+19.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 35.83 · Est. Down < 29.35 (-2.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Early Up ≥ 31.82 · Est. Down < 31.65.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); List weight 2.50%. Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XMA.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
