$316.55
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL constituent · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $368.63–379.36 | +16.5% to +19.8% | wk high 01-30, wk high 09-25, wk high 04-10 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $305.11 | -3.6% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $300.73 | -5.0% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $333.79 | +5.4% | top of R1 (40-wk SMA, wk high 06-19) |
APPENDIX · FNV.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 47.7
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 10.0 = 14.6 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 47.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Neutral |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Neutral |
| Trend (confirmed) | Neutral |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 33.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 33.6 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 33.6 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (FNV.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 4 Early Down (−) → | -6.39% | -7.32% | Est. Up ≥ 340.24 (+7.5%) · Est. Down < 263.25 |
| Trend · XGD.TO | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.32% | +4.73% | Est. Up ≥ 298.70 (-5.6%) · Est. Down < 290.16 |
| Trading · TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.93% | -0.20% | Est. Up ≥ 389.30 (+23.0%) · Early Up ≥ 326.44 · Est. Down < 324.69 |
| Trading · XGD.TO | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.40% | +2.22% | Est. Up ≥ 310.03 (-2.1%) · Est. Down < 283.92 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 316.55)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 368.63–379.36 | +16.5% to +19.8% | wk high 01-30 368.63 · wk high 09-25 378.39 · wk high 04-10 378.61 · wk high 08-28 379.36 |
| R1 | 331.41–333.79 | +4.7% to +5.4% | 40-wk SMA 331.41 · wk high 06-19 332.67 · 200-day SMA 333.02 · wk high 06-05 333.59 · wk high 05-15 333.79 |
| S1 | 305.11–314.53 | -0.6% to -3.6% | wk high ’25-10-03 314.53 · wk low 10-02 311.66 · wk low 02-06 305.11 |
| S2 | 300.73–303.56 | -4.1% to -5.0% | wk low 05-08 303.56 · wk high ’25-12-12 303.12 · 50% 302.82 · wk low 05-29 302.42 · wk low 03-20 300.73 |
| S3 | 278.28–285.92 | -9.7% to -12.1% | wk low 06-12 285.92 · wk high ’25-11-14 282.72 · 61.8% 282.67 · wk low 01-02 278.28 |
| ATH | 388.22 | +22.6% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 305.11 (-3.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 300.73–303.56.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 300.73 (-5.0%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 278.28–285.92.
- Trend vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 340.24 (+7.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 340.24 · Est. Down < 263.25 (-16.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 389.30 · Early Up ≥ 326.44 · Est. Down < 324.69.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); List weight 2.50%. Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XGD.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
