$202.68
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL alternative · entry card
APPENDIX · CTC-A.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 75.5
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 18.0 + 2.3 = 20.3 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 75.5 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 70.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 70.5 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 70.5 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CTC-A.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 1 Established Up (−) → | +2.87% | -0.58% | Est. Up ≥ 195.14 (-3.7%) · Est. Down < 191.61 |
| Trend · XST.TO | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -0.82% | -0.77% | Est. Up ≥ 203.18 (+0.2%) · Est. Down < 185.33 |
| Trading · TSX | 1 Established Up (+) → | +0.98% | +1.27% | Est. Up ≥ 201.67 (-0.5%) · Est. Down < 171.40 |
| Trading · XST.TO | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -1.07% | -2.63% | Est. Up ≥ 207.79 (+2.5%) · Early Up ≥ 205.59 · Est. Down < 204.49 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 202.68)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 207.40–209.10 | +2.3% to +3.2% | wk high 08-14 207.40 · wk high 07-31 208.08 · wk high 10-23 209.10 |
| S1 | 196.46–202.46 | -0.1% to -3.1% | wk high 04-17 202.46 · wk high 07-17 199.98 · wk high 03-06 197.19 · wk high 02-20 196.46 |
| S2 | 189.51–194.39 | -4.1% to -6.5% | wk high ’25-07-25 194.39 · wk high 05-08 192.65 · wk high 09-18 191.91 · 40-wk SMA 190.12 · 200-day SMA 189.51 |
| S3 | 183.18–187.59 | -7.4% to -9.6% | wk low 07-10 187.59 · wk low 08-28 185.60 · wk low 09-18 185.47 · wk low 06-26 183.18 |
| ATH | 213.85 | +5.5% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 196.46 (-3.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 189.51–194.39.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 189.51 (-6.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 183.18–187.59.
- Trend vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 195.14 (-3.7%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 195.14 · Est. Down < 191.61 (-5.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 201.67 · Est. Down < 171.40.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); Grid Alternative (Consumer Discretionary; no Focus List weight; recommended for 2.5% positions). Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XST.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
