CSU.TO
Constellation Software
$3438.00
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL constituent · entry card
APPENDIX · CSU.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 83.3
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 83.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 78.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 22 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 20.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 78.2 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 78.2 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CSU.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 1 Established Up (+) → | +12.87% | +8.18% | Est. Up ≥ 3026.25 (-12.0%) · Est. Down < 2406.60 |
| Trend · XIT.TO | 1 Established Up (+) → | +7.23% | +9.19% | Est. Up ≥ 3170.15 (-7.8%) · Est. Down < 2870.40 |
| Trading · TSX | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.03% | +4.10% | Est. Up ≥ 3292.00 (-4.2%) · Est. Down < 2406.60 |
| Trading · XIT.TO | 1 Established Up (+) → | +8.83% | +7.05% | Est. Up ≥ 3182.65 (-7.4%) · Est. Down < 2406.60 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 3438.00)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 4388.16–4460.94 | +27.6% to +29.8% | wk low 2024-12-20 4388.16 · wk high 2024-10-18 4460.94 |
| R2 | 4245.18–4322.50 | +23.5% to +25.7% | wk low ’25-08-15 4245.18 · wk low 2024-10-04 4255.24 · wk low ’25-08-29 4322.50 |
| R1 | 4101.70–4203.00 | +19.3% to +22.3% | wk low ’25-01-10 4101.70 · wk high ’25-10-10 4110.00 · wk low 2024-11-01 4160.00 · wk low ’25-04-11 4203.00 |
| S1 | 3342.71–3437.77 | -0.0% to -2.8% | wk high ’25-11-28 3437.77 · wk high 10-23 3418.55 · wk low ’25-09-26 3390.01 · wk high ’25-12-19 3381.39 · wk high 01-02 3371.86 · wk high 08-14 3342.71 |
| S2 | 3155.60–3229.21 | -6.1% to -8.2% | wk high 08-28 3229.21 · wk low ’25-12-12 3220.00 · wk high 06-12 3166.70 · wk low ’25-11-21 3155.60 |
| S3 | 2945.10–3000.63 | -12.7% to -14.3% | wk high 03-13 3000.63 · wk low 08-21 2945.10 |
| ATH | 5300.00 | +54.2% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 3342.71 (-2.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 3155.60–3229.21.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 3155.60 (-8.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 2945.10–3000.63.
- Trend vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 3026.25 (-12.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 3026.25 · Est. Down < 2406.60 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 3292.00 · Est. Down < 2406.60.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); List weight 2.50%. Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XIT.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
