$11.11
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL alternative · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $12.55–12.78 | +13.0% to +15.0% | 50% retr., wk low 06-12, wk high ’25-11-14 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $10.52 | -5.3% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $9.12 | -17.9% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $11.25 | +1.3% | top of R1 (wk high 2024-10-11, 61.8% retr.) |
APPENDIX · CS.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 18.3
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 1.0 = 1.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 10 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 18.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 12.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 4.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 12.3 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 12.3 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CS.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -20.08% | -8.80% | Est. Up ≥ 14.29 (+28.6%) · Early Up ≥ 13.90 · Est. Down < 13.83 |
| Trend · XMA.TO | 5 Established Down (+) → | -9.81% | +1.86% | Est. Up ≥ 14.61 (+31.5%) · Early Up ≥ 12.19 · Est. Down < 12.12 |
| Trading · TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -4.66% | -3.70% | Early Up ≥ 11.62 · Est. Down < 11.56 |
| Trading · XMA.TO | 3 Neutral (−) ↑ | +0.16% | -1.62% | Est. Up ≥ 12.80 (+15.2%) · Early Up ≥ 11.09 · Est. Down < 11.03 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 11.11)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 12.93–13.31 | +16.4% to +19.8% | wk low 01-02 12.93 · wk high 04-17 13.29 · 40-wk SMA 13.31 |
| R2 | 12.55–12.78 | +13.0% to +15.0% | 50% 12.55 · wk low 06-12 12.67 · wk high ’25-11-14 12.78 |
| R1 | 11.15–11.25 | +0.4% to +1.3% | wk high 2024-10-11 11.15 · 61.8% 11.25 |
| S1 | 10.52–10.79 | -2.9% to -5.3% | wk low ’25-10-24 10.79 · wk low 10-23 10.74 · wk high 2024-11-08 10.64 · wk low ’25-11-21 10.56 · wk high ’25-09-12 10.52 |
| S2 | 9.12–9.37 | -15.7% to -17.9% | wk high ’25-01-10 9.37 · wk low 03-20 9.30 · wk low 2024-11-08 9.24 · wk low ’25-09-05 9.15 · wk high ’25-07-04 9.12 |
| S3 | 8.82–8.97 | -19.3% to -20.6% | wk high ’25-03-21 8.97 · wk high ’25-02-14 8.82 |
| ATH | 18.04 | +62.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 10.52 (-5.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 9.12–9.37.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 9.12 (-17.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 8.82–8.97.
- Trend vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 14.29 (+28.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 13.90 · Est. Down < 13.83 (+24.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Early Up ≥ 11.62 · Est. Down < 11.56.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); Grid Alternative (Basic Materials; no Focus List weight; recommended for <=2% positions). Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XMA.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
