CNQ.TO
Canadian Natural Resources
$74.97
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
CFL constituent · entry card
APPENDIX · CNQ.TO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 100.0
| RS vs TSX (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 30 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 100.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 68.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 8.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 13.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 68.8 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 68.8 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CNQ.TO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · TSX | 1 Established Up (+) → | +14.01% | +4.66% | Est. Up ≥ 69.42 (-7.4%) · Est. Down < 52.48 |
| Trend · XEG.TO | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.91% | +2.13% | Est. Up ≥ 76.55 (+2.1%) · Est. Down < 69.57 |
| Trading · TSX | 3 Neutral (−) ↓ | -0.19% | -0.74% | Est. Up ≥ 75.42 (+0.6%) · Est. Down < 68.00 |
| Trading · XEG.TO | 1 Established Up (+) → | +1.60% | +0.41% | Est. Up ≥ 74.08 (-1.2%) · Est. Down < 67.73 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 74.97)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 78.60–78.60 | +4.8% to +4.8% | ATH 10-30 78.60 |
| S1 | 70.44–72.35 | -3.5% to -6.0% | wk high 09-11 72.35 · wk high 04-03 70.99 · wk high 03-20 70.44 |
| S2 | 66.88–68.45 | -8.7% to -10.8% | wk high 05-22 68.45 · wk low 09-11 68.42 · wk high 07-31 67.10 · wk high 06-05 67.08 · 50% 66.88 |
| S3 | 64.11–66.05 | -11.9% to -14.5% | wk low 10-02 66.05 · 40-wk SMA 64.53 · 61.8% 64.11 |
| ATH | 78.60 | +4.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 70.44 (-6.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 66.88–68.45.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 66.88 (-10.8%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 64.11–66.05.
- Trend vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 69.42 (-7.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 69.42 · Est. Down < 52.48 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs TSX: Est. Up ≥ 75.42 · Est. Down < 68.00.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG Canadian Focus List holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-09-01 (RBC PAG "Canadian Equity Grid Fall 2026" (September 2026 – November 2026; canadian_grid_en.pdf; Focus List names and Alternatives by recommended position size), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; Focus List weights from the Sep 1, 2026 Canadian Focus List Quarterly report (unchanged)); List weight 2.50%. Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XEG.TO (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
